||UP: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Could the art-world enfant terrible be a real director? Critics seem to think so.
||DOWN: Jason Reitman, Juno. Every splashy feature about stripper turned screenwriter Diablo Cody marks Juno as her achievement, not his.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men; Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead; Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Ridley Scott, American Gangster; Joe Wright, Atonement
||UP: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild. A breakthrough award from the National Board of Review could help his long-shot chances.
||DOWN: George Clooney, Michael Clayton. Wait, when could the guy who won Best Actor from the NBR be down for the week? When it's widely assumed the celeb-loving board members gave him the award just so a big star would come to their dinner.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement;
|George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Denzel Washington, American Gangster
||UP: Julie Christie, Away From Her. NBR win cements her front-runner status.
||DOWN: Keira Knightley, Atonement. Not down much, but down a little thanks to A.O. Scott's pan of the movie and of her performance in the Times.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Amy Adams, Enchanted; Julie Christie, Away From Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Ellen Page, Juno
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Reviews and features tout the actor, whose role is apparently barely more than a cameo — but stunning.
||DOWN: Ethan Hawke, before the Devil Knows You're Dead. The movie's falling off the radar, and it now seems likely only living legend Lumet will get a nod.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood;
|Ethan Hawke, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men. Finally, media and bloggers start to notice the lone female voice in this male-dominated movie.
||DOWN: Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement. Reviewers can't talk about the strengths of her performance without spoiling the movie, so they focus on her co-stars Saoirse Ronan and Romola Garai instead.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There; Romola Garai, Atonement;
|Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton