Oscar Futures: Can Julian Get a Schnomination for ‘Diving Bell’?

Photo: Courtesy of AMPAS

Every week between now and January 22, Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen to insider gossip, comb the Oscar blogs, and out-and-out guess (when necessary) to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture UP: There Will Be Blood. It's the last great question of Oscar season: Can this critically beloved film beat the odds and land a Best Picture nomination? DOWN: American Gangster. So really, everyone realizes, it's not nearly as good as The Departed.
CURRENT PREDIX: American Gangster, Atonement, Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men
Best Director UP: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The Schnab is everywhere! And a surprise DGA nod makes him a viable candidate for an Oscar nomination. DOWN: Joe Wright, Atonement. Meanwhile, no DGA nod for Wright just accelerated the decline of his film, a onetime front-runner.
CURRENT PREDIX: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men; Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Ridley Scott, American Gangster; Joe Wright, Atonement
Best Actor UP: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild. The movie, and its young leading man, are making a surprise surge in the final days of campaigning; DGA, WGA, and SAG nominations for the film suggest broad industry support. DOWN: Denzel Washington, American Gangster. It may be that not even Denzel's Academy magic can get him a nomination for this downbeat role in a fading film.
CURRENT PREDIX: Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Best Actress UP: Ellen Page, Juno. Out of nowhere, she seems poised to win the Golden Globe this weekend. DOWN: Amy Adams, Enchanted. Observers fear this movie might be too slight for a Best Actress nomination, no matter how great Adams is in it. Sneaking away with the Globe could change that, though.
CURRENT PREDIX: Julie Christie, Away From Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose; Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Ellen Page, Juno
Best Supporting Actor UP: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men. At this point it seems foolish to put anyone else in this slot, since Bardem might be the biggest lock on Oscar night since Titanic. DOWN: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War. He's the last hope for this movie, which has otherwise fallen completely off the radar.
CURRENT PREDIX: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford; Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Best Supporting Actress UP: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild. Never underestimate the Academy's willingness to nominate the fantastic Keener. DOWN: Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement. Seriously, she's in the movie for like three minutes.
CURRENT PREDIX: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Catherine Keener, Into the Wild; Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton