||UP: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon. Despite some bumps earlier, his movie now seems like a lock for a Best Picture nod, which means he'll probably sneak in there too.
||DOWN: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight. His movie made a billion dollars — so what? Apart from Heath Ledger, Knight's had virtually no impact on early awards.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon;
|Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road; Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight; Gus Van Sant, Milk
||UP: Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. He's scored nods from SAG and the Golden Globes, which certainly seems like a good sign (unless they were just trying to get Brangelina to show up for their awards shows).
||DOWN: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road. He was snubbed by SAG, and awards-givers don't seem very excited about his movie in general this week.
|Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road; Clint Eastwood Gran Torino; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
||UP: Meryl Streep, Doubt. Cratering support for Revolutionary Road could put her in the lead.
||DOWN: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. After she scored an armload of critics awards, a cold shoulder from SAG makes it seem like a long shot again. Will Melissa Leo steal the art-house vote?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder. Last week a Golden Globe nomination and now one from SAG — could he actually pull this off? We still don't think so, but maybe!
||DOWN: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road. A month ago, he was Heath Ledger's biggest competition and now he's losing nominations to guys from Tropic Thunder.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Josh Brolin, Milk; James Franco, Milk; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Viola Davis, Doubt. She's been steadily building momentum, and Doubt's surprise showing at yesterday's SAG nominations certainly helps her case (who cares if she's only in it for ten minutes!). Could she beat Penélope?
||DOWN: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married. Screwed over by both SAG and the Globes. Did her low-key performance not leave an impression?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Kate Winslet, The Reader