||UP: Stephen Daldry, The Reader. Surprise! His Golden Globe nomination yesterday makes this former long shot a real contender.
||DOWN: Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler. No major honors for directing or the film this week; if Rourke doesn't win an Oscar for The Wrestler, maybe nobody will (except Bruce Springsteen, possibly).
|CURRENT PREDIX: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road; Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight; Gus Van Sant, Milk
||UP: Sean Penn, Milk. A bi-coastal sweep of the critics' awards (plus landing Milk's only Golden Globe nod) certainly helps his chances — is he now the front-runner?
||DOWN: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino. A rave from Manohla doesn't make up for yesterday's Golden Globes snub (and neither does his nomination for Best Original Song).
|CURRENT PREDIX: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
||UP: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. Awards from both New York and Los Angeles critics bode well. Maybe Kate and Meryl have some competition after all!
||DOWN: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. Will The Reader's better-than-expected collection of Globe nominations further confuse Academy voters who don't know which category to support her in?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky;
|Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder. When his GG nomination was announced yesterday morning, the room was filled with laughter. But for that brief second after they called his name and before people started laughing, the moment was all his.
||DOWN: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road. Nobody puts too much stock in the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's picks, necessarily — but he was snubbed in favor of Tom Cruise's Tropic Thunder cameo.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Josh Brolin, Milk; James Franco, Milk; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Given the results of most early awards, it's a pretty crappy year to be a supporting actress who's not named Penélope Cruz.
||DOWN: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married. She was shafted at the Globes — is Anne Hathaway Rachel's only Oscar hope?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married;
|Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Kate Winslet, The Reader