||UP: Lee Daniels, Precious. His surprise DGA nod (the first one ever for an African-American director) bodes well here. Are these your five nominees for Best Director?
||DOWN: Clint Eastwood, Invictus. He was the next most plausible candidate for a DGA nod — will the Academy snub him, too?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.
||UP: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. With an Up in the Air backlash in full swing, nobody really talking about Invictus anymore, and the Single Man not "getting a push from the Weinsteins," his odds seem better and better.
||DOWN: Sam Rockwell, Moon. The guy gives Sony two performances for the price of one, and they're too worried about piracy to cough up a few screeners for an awards campaign? Lame.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.|
|Best Actress ||UP: Tilda Swinton, Julia. Roger Ebert: "Tilda Swinton gave the best performance by an actress in 2009." Too bad he's the only person who's seen her movie. ||DOWN: Zoe Saldana, Avatar. So her Oscar chances are slim, but what's with bumping her into the supporting category at the NAACP Image Awards? (Tangentially related: How did Sandra Bullock get an NAACP nod?)
|CURRENT PREDIX: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds. Pretty much everybody handing out supporting-acting awards this week gave one to him, the same guy who's won all the other supporting-acting awards this season.
||DOWN: Alfred Molina, An Education. Why isn't anybody still talking about his performance? It's a pretty full category, but still.
|Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Mariah Carey, Precious. Despite Roger Friedman's ceaseless campaigning, her chances at a nod still aren't very good. But a pair of tipsy acceptance speeches this week (one of them for an acting award, even) made us all remember what we loved about Mariah Carey in the first place (tipsiness).
||DOWN: Judi Dench, Nine. Left off of BAFTA's long list in favor of Claire Danes, Susan Sarandon, and, cripes, even Mariah Carey.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'nique, Precious; Julianne Moore, A Single Man.