||UP: Peter Weir, The Way Back. He's been nominated four times (but never won), and this week his first movie since 2003's Master and Commander got an Oscar-qualifying release date.
||DOWN: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. A Superman reboot would have been one thing — but how will Oscar voters feel about him maybe directing a Wolverine sequel?
|CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception.
||UP: James Franco, 127 Hours. The movie's full trailer dropped yesterday with a blurb declaring his "one of the greatest performances of all time." It looks nominatable, at least.
||DOWN: Javier Bardem, Biutiful. With Eisenberg and Firth locks, and Bridges and Franco up this week, this category is getting pretty crowded. And nobody's seen The Fighter yet ...
|CURRENT PREDIX: |Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours; Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter.
|Best Actress ||UP: Diane Lane, Secretariat. They're in an awesome, bizarro feud over the movie itself, but both Roger Ebert and Andrew O'Hehir agree she's terrific in it.||DOWN: Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs. S.T. Vanairsdale hears Love is "miscategorized as an Oscar-season hopeful ... Hathaway’s performance is fine (the Academy loves disabilities) but talk to me after you’ve seen it."
|CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Ed Harris, The Way Back. Can you believe he's never won? That could help him in a race in which serial award winner Geoffrey Rush is the front-runner.
||DOWN: Sam Rockwell, Conviction. He's allegedly great, but nobody seems too excited about his movie.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Andrew Garfield, The Social Network; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. Kingdom's the first DVD screener to hit voters' mailboxes, and she's its best hope.
||DOWN: Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy. She's always excellent, and her movie's getting okay reviews, but she didn't get much of a bump this week.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit.