Best Director |
 UP: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. As buzz on Swan (and especially Natalie Portman) grows, Aronofsky tells David Poland his next movie won't be the stinker you're expecting: "I'm being hired [for Wolverine 2] to do what I always do." Good news. |
 DOWN: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech. Even if Speech wins Best Picture, as many think it will, most are still predicting Fincher will win here. Hooper needs to take it up a notch. |
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CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception. |
Best Actor |
 UP: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter. A huge wet kiss from 60 Minutes last night. |
 DOWN: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network. People are still talking about the movie and its supporting performances, but excitement over Eisenberg seems to have cooled way down. |
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CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours. |
| Best Actress |  UP: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. Following Swan's AFI Fest premiere, she's officially the front-runner. Tom O'Neil and Steve Pond try to gin up the competition between her and Annette Bening, but both sound like they think Portman's got it. |  DOWN: Lesley Manville, Another Year. Jeff Wells, who doesn't think she has a chance in lead, mounts a campaign to get her to switch to supporting. |
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CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan. |
Best Supporting Actor |
 UP: Christian Bale, The Fighter. The cover of the new Esquire says this race is all over. |
 DOWN: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. Now here's a campaign we haven't heard much about lately. "Was it all a joke?" wonders Stu Vanairsdale. |
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CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech. |
Best Supporting Actress |
 UP: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech. The Gurus o' Gold have her pretty far in the lead. Also, is she due for a "career-tribute" Oscar? |
 DOWN: Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham. The movie's unimpressive first weekend might not bode well. |
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CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. |
UP: Toy Story 3. "We have the biggest and best reviewed film of the year. If not this year, and not this movie, when?" wonders Disney chairman Rich Ross. It's not completely out of the question, says Tom O'Neil.
DOWN: Another Year. Dave Karger downgrades it to long-shot status. Nice new trailer, though.
