||UP: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. His three big nods this week (for Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics' Choice awards), plus Swan's continued box-office success, mean he'll almost certainly be among the four lucky directors who'll lose to David Fincher on Oscar night.
||DOWN: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours. No Globe nomination for him. Russell and Aronofsky are surging as he seems to be losing steam.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan;
|Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception; David O. Russell, The Fighter.
||UP: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. The HFPA is historically Weinstein-friendly, but it's still slightly surprising that they'd nominate Gosling for a Globe ...
||DOWN: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. ... over the returning champ. (Bridges did still get SAG and Critics' Choice nominations, though.)
|CURRENT PREDIX: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.|
|Best Actress ||UP: Hilary Swank, Conviction. Remember her? Does her surprise SAG nod mean she has a shot at this thing after all?||DOWN: Lesley Manville, Another Year. Snubbed by pretty much everybody handing out nominations this week. If only she'd listened to Jeff Wells.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
|Best Supporting Actor
||UP: Jeremy Renner, The Town. He was nominated for SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice awards ...
||DOWN: Armie Hammer, The Social Network. ... and he wasn't. (Seems like if one of Social Network's supporting actors have a shot, it's Andrew Garfield.)
|CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter;
|Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
|Best Supporting Actress
||UP: Mila Kunis, Black Swan. Surprise! SAG, BFCA, and the HFPA liked her as much as you did.
||DOWN: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole. No big nominations for her this week. Not a good sign.
|CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.