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Oscar Futures: You Know What’s Cool? A Billion Critics’ Awards

Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture UP: The Social Network. King's Speech predictably scored the most Globe nominations, but Social Network got top prizes from eleven of the twelve critics groups that gave awards this week, plus an assist from Time magazine. DOWN: True Grit. Completely shafted by the Golden Globes.
CURRENT PREDIX: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone.
Best Director UP: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. His three big nods this week (for Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics' Choice awards), plus Swan's continued box-office success, mean he'll almost certainly be among the four lucky directors who'll lose to David Fincher on Oscar night. DOWN: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours. No Globe nomination for him. Russell and Aronofsky are surging as he seems to be losing steam.
CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception; David O. Russell, The Fighter.
Best Actor UP: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. The HFPA is historically Weinstein-friendly, but it's still slightly surprising that they'd nominate Gosling for a Globe ... DOWN: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. ... over the returning champ. (Bridges did still get SAG and Critics' Choice nominations, though.)
CURRENT PREDIX: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.
Best Actress UP: Hilary Swank, Conviction. Remember her? Does her surprise SAG nod mean she has a shot at this thing after all?DOWN: Lesley Manville, Another Year. Snubbed by pretty much everybody handing out nominations this week. If only she'd listened to Jeff Wells.
CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor UP: Jeremy Renner, The Town. He was nominated for SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice awards ... DOWN: Armie Hammer, The Social Network. ... and he wasn't. (Seems like if one of Social Network's supporting actors have a shot, it's Andrew Garfield.)
CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
Best Supporting Actress UP: Mila Kunis, Black Swan. Surprise! SAG, BFCA, and the HFPA liked her as much as you did. DOWN: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole. No big nominations for her this week. Not a good sign.
CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.
Photo: Sony