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Oscar Futures: What Do the Guilds Have Against True Grit?

Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Director UP: David O. Russell, The Fighter. Hey, a surprise DGA nod (which came at the expense of the Coens). He may sneak in there yet. Honorable mention: Darren Aronofsky, who also got a nomination, and told Armond White where to stick it at the NYFCC Awards. DOWN: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit. Their movie was a "late bloomer," so their DGA snub might not mean too much. But still! (Also, if the Academy likes Grit AND The Fighter, watch your back, Tom Hooper.)
CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception.
Best Actor UP: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. Not that he gives a shit, but his episode of American Masters was pretty much the most exciting thing to happen in his dull category this week. DOWN: Javier Bardem, Biutiful. Well, none of the top five contenders derailed their campaigns by doing something stupid in the past few days, so Javier's chances still don't look too great.
CURRENT PREDIX: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.
Best Actress UP: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. She dealt with Armond White's hectoring at the NYFCC awards like a champ, and with only a little crying.DOWN: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. "Is she overexposed?" asks Pete Hammond, before her topless perfume ad hits the Internet. (She'll still win, though.)
CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor UP: Christian Bale, The Fighter. He was the front-runner even before he started showing up to awards shows in the guise of our lord and savior. Give these other guys a chance, Christian! DOWN: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network. Not that he was going to beat Bale anyway, but releasing the first photo of him in a superhero costume three days before the Golden Globes seems like a no-win proposition, right?
CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Andrew Garfield, The Social Network; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
Best Supporting Actress UP: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. Scott Rudin explains away that category-fraud thing: "Mattie Ross's character is really the impetus for change in Rooster Cogburn’s character." Everybody happy now? DOWN: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech. Honesty like this probably doesn't help her here: "I thought [The King's Speech] was a boys' film ... Sometimes you get nominated for the wrong things."
CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.
Photo: Paramount