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Oscar Futures: Our Final Pre-Nomination Predictions

After sixteen weeks of entrail reading and educated guesswork, we'll soon know which Oscar hopefuls successfully campaigned their way to a coveted nomination. But for one last time before Tuesday morning's announcement ceremony, Vulture's Oscar Futures has combed the blogs and listened for insider gossip to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race. Our final pre-nomination predictions are below.

Best Picture UP: The Social Network. Your Golden Globe winner for Best Drama is now so far in the lead that even the Weinsteins have seemingly thrown in the towel. DOWN: The King's Speech. The Gurus o' Gold have finally demoted it to second place.
CURRENT PREDIX: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit.
Best Director UP: David Fincher, The Social Network. He was going to win anyway, but he resealed the deal with his classy speech at the Golden Globes, which he impressively nailed in only one take. DOWN: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit. Shafted by ACE and BAFTA. It's not looking good, bros.
CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception; David O. Russell, The Fighter.
Best Actor UP: Colin Firth, The King's Speech. Another inevitable winner whose victory seems even more in the bag after his Globes win. That last hour of the Oscars is sure going to be a snooze, isn't it? DOWN: Robert Duvall, Get Low. Like Vulture Kyle says, if Jeff Bridges, Mark Wahlberg, Javier Bardem, or Paul Giamatti gets a surprise nod, it's Duvall's spot they'll be taking.
CURRENT PREDIX: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.
Best Actress UP: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. Though she's being pushed in the supporting category, BAFTA nominated her in lead, and that's where Dave Karger thinks she'll end up at the Oscars.DOWN: Lesley Manville, Another Year. And if Karger's right, it's bad news for Manville.
CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor UP: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. He's newly healthy and was a hit at the Globes. Could he sneak in there? We doubt it, but maybe! DOWN: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network. He's vulnerable, and John Hawkes or Michael Douglas may yet get lucky.
CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Andrew Garfield, The Social Network; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
Best Supporting Actress UP: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. She's still on the bubble, but if Hailee Steinfeld gets promoted to lead (or snubbed altogether because voters were confused about which category to nominate her in), Jacki's spot is a little safer. DOWN: Melissa Leo, The Fighter. A snub from BAFTA and a gas face from Helena Bonham Carter. She's still the front-runner, but if there's a surprise in any of the major categories on Oscar night, we bet it's this one.
CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.
Photo: Sony