Stunning box-office news this Friday afternoon: Studio marketing and distribution sources tell Vulture that even though Justin Bieber’s new 3-D concert movie, Never Say Never, is one of the worst-tracking films in recent memory, it’s nonetheless poised to both open at No. 1 and even more astonishing, easily eclipse Adam Sandler’s new romantic comedy Just Go With It.
How is this even possible? Well, because most Hollywood marketing research only tracks interest among adults, older and younger (above 25 years of age, and below it), and among males and females. Never Say Never is, as one marketing chief explains to Vulture, “even less than a one-quadrant movie” — that is, it appeals mostly to girls between the ages of 4 and 12 years of age. But are they ever loyal: Currently, one studio’s marketing department is forecasting that Never Say Never will open at between $34 million and $36 million, while Sandler’s Go With It is expected to “only” make between $26 million and $29 million.
Mind you, these are just early East Coast projections — Never Say Never could open even bigger! Stay tuned for a full analysis in Monday’s Your Box Office Explained.