Vulture’s Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and What to Say When They Do

Nominees Black Swan The Fighter Inception The Kids Are All Right The King’s Speech 127 Hours The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone Who Will Win: Though The Social Network racked up plenty of critics awards, The King’s Speech has taken all the kudos that were voted on by actual Academy members, including wins at the PGA, DGA, and SAG. At this point, Speech has it sewn up. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “That’s gotta hurt for The Social Network — no movie has ever won the Golden Globe, the National Board of Review, and the New York Film Critics Circle but then lost the Oscar for Best Picture.”

Nominees Javier Bardem, Biutiful Jeff Bridges, True Grit Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Colin Firth, The King’s Speech James Franco, 127 Hours Who Will Win: Even James Franco knows that this one is going to Colin Firth. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Do you think this is a make-good for Firth losing last year with A Single Man, just like when Russell Crowe won for Gladiator the year after he lost for The Insider?”

Nominees Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Natalie Portman, Black Swan Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine Who Will Win: Though Annette Bening has surged as of late, it’s hard to argue with the precursor firepower Natalie Portman has shown. This may also be the voters’ only chance to reward Black Swan, an arty movie that became a box-office sensation. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “I bet Hilary Swank, who beat Annette Bening twice for this award, just sent Natalie some flowers with a card reading, ‘The torch has been passed.’”

Nominees Amy Adams, The Fighter Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech Melissa Leo, The Fighter Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom Who Will Win: Though Melissa Leo’s self-promotional Oscar ads stirred controversy, the media was more outraged than voters were. In this very fluid category, we’re calling Leo as the safe choice, though Hailee Steinfeld is a comer. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Hailee probably lost because actresses making their film debut in this category win so rarely — only eight times in 73 years.”

Nominees How to Train Your Dragon The Illusionist Toy Story 3 Who Will Win: If you need a bigger lock than Colin Firth for Best Actor, it’s Toy Story 3 in this category. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Since they introduced this category in 2001, every single Pixar film has been nominated, and they’ve only lost twice.”

Nominees Biutiful (Mexico) Dogtooth (Greece) Hors la Loi (Outside the Law) (Algeria) Incendies (Canada) In a Better World (Denmark) Who Will Win: Though Biutiful’s got buzz for Javier Bardem’s performance, In a Better World is far more Academy-friendly than that Barcelona-set bummer. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Did you know that this category has a smaller executive committee that gets to nominate more daring films than the general committee usually does? That’s totally how the fucked-up Dogtooth got in the final five.”

Nominees Exit Through the Gift Shop Gasland Inside Job Restrepo Waste Land Who Will Win: We think it’ll be Inside Job, a devastating account of the U.S. financial meltdown. Then again, the rascally Exit Through the Gift Shop did recently pick up an editing award, which bodes well for its chances … Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Did you hear that the Academy didn’t want Exit Through the Gift Shop director Banksy to come to the ceremony?”

Nominees “Coming Home” from Country Strong “I See the Light” from Tangled “If I Rise” from 127 Hours “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3 Who Will Win: In what’s considered to be a weak category, there is support for “Coming Home” and “If I Rise.” Still, we think general goodwill for Toy Story 3 will give its song the win. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “That was Randy Newman’s twentieth Oscar nomination, but he’s only won once before.”

Nominees The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin Toy Story 3, screenplay by Michael Arndt; story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich True Grit, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 127 Hours, Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy Winter’s Bone, Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini Who Will Win: The Social Network’s Aaron Sorkin, the most prominent screenwriter of the season. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Sorkin’s next project is a series for HBO that’s basically about Keith Olbermann.”

Nominees The King’s Speech, David Seidler Inception, Christopher Nolan The Kids Are All Right, Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg The Fighter, screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson Another Year, Mike Leigh Who Will Win: The King’s Speech writer David Seidler is the powerhouse here, but an upset in this category is the The Kids Are All Right’s best chance at Oscar gold. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “You know, David Seidler overcame a stutter, too.”

Nominees: Alice in Wonderland Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1 Inception The King’s Speech True Grit Who Will Win:Royalty-fests like The King’s Speech often have a good shot at these. But for our money, it will be hard to beat the flamboyant, elaborate visuals of Alice in Wonderland — especially since Tim Burton films (Batman, Sleepy Hollow) have fared well in this category. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Craig and McMillan have been nominated for Harry Potter twice before, but the series has never won any Oscars in any category.”

Nominees Black Swan, Matthew Libatique Inception, Wally Pfister The King’s Speech, Danny Cohen The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth True Grit, Roger Deakins Who Will Win: Pfister won the American Society of Cinematographers award, and Black Swan and True Grit fought it out over the major critics’ awards. We’re going to call this one for True Grit and Deakins, an absolute legend in his field who has been nominated nine times but (amazingly) never won. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced “The best shot in True Grit is the very first shot of the film — so voters don’t even need to have watched the film beyond the first five minutes to be impressed by Deakins’s work.”

Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Colleen Atwood I Am Love, Antonella Cannarozzi The King’s Speech, Jenny Beavan The Tempest, Sandy Powell True Grit, Mary Zophres Who Will Win: There’s something to be said for every nominee in this category, which isn’t always the case with the Oscars. But let’s face it — there’s a Best Picture front-runner that also happens to be a historical film about the British royal family. One does not want to bet against those. So: The King’s Speech. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “If Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark wasn’t such a catastrophe, there might have been a groundswell of support for Julie Taymor, which could have resulted in an upset for The Tempest. Too bad.”

Nominees : Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum The Fighter, Pamela Martin The King’s Speech, Tariq Anwar 127 Hours, Jon Harris The Social Network, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter Who Will Win: As people never get tired of pointing out, the editing winner often mirrors the Best Picture winner. Actually, it corresponds more closely with the Best Director winner — but not always. (Otherwise, Martin Scorsese would have a lot more Oscars on his shelf.) This could go to The King’s Speech or The Social Network, depending on whose side you’re on. We’re going to say The Social Network— its impressive jumps back and forth in time probably dazzled enough voters, and many are predicting it will take Best Director even if it doesn’t get the big one. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “The real winner was robbed — even David Edelstein of New York Magazine, who absolutely loathed Inception, thought it had the editing Oscar all sewn up.”

Nominees: Barney’s Version, Adrien Morot The Way Back, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng The Wolfman, Rick Baker and Dave Elsey Who Will Win: An almost diametrically perfect face-off: Old-age makeup versus epic grime versus SFX razzle-dazzle. And to make things interesting, all three nominees are films not that many people saw. Still, this is a category that could more accurately be called Most Make-Up instead of Best Make-Up. As a result, The Wolfman will probably take it, especially since it’s the work of the legendary Rick Baker. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Rick Baker has seven Oscars, but his work on Greystoke: Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes remains his masterpiece.” [Note: You should change that to “six Oscars” if by some unforeseeable reason Baker doesn’t win.]

Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, John Powell Inception, Hans Zimmer The King’s Speech, Alexandre Desplat 127 Hours, A.R. Rahman The Social Network, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Who Will Win: This is an interesting category, with NiN’s Reznor and his moody electronica score facing off against the ubiquitous Hans Zimmer (who did some of his best work on Inception) and the old-school charms of The King’s Speech. And it’s a tough call to make: If Academy voters think that Beethoven’s 7th, used rather liberally in the climactic scene of The King’s Speech, was originally composed, then there’s no stopping Desplat, and he remains the current favorite. But we’re going to go out on a limb and call this for Inception — the film’s wall-to-wall music remains one of its most impressive elements. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “The main contenders in this category all used previously recorded pieces of music prominently. The King’s Speech used Beethoven’s 7th, The Social Network used Edward Grieg’s ‘In the Hall of the Mountain King,’ and Inception used Edith Piaf’s ‘Je Ne Regrette Rien.’”

Nominees Inception, Richard King Toy Story 3, Tom Myers and Michael Silvers Tron: Legacy, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague True Grit, Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey Unstoppable, Mark P. Stoeckinger Who Will Win: Pixar films tend to score nominations in this category but have only won once (for The Incredibles in 2004). Tron: Legacy might have a shot, especially if voters feel the need to make up for its lack of a nomination for Best Visual Effects. But when there’s a blockbuster Best Picture nominee with a lot of action scenes, it tends to steamroll over the technical categories — so it’s hard not to feel like Inception has this one sewn up. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “The difference between mixing and editing is that a mixer has to pick what to emphasize in the existing sound, while an editor has to pick and record the sounds to include in the soundtrack. That’s why animated films like Toy Story 3 tend to get nominated in editing, but not so much in mixing.”

Nominees: Inception, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo, and Ed Novick The King’s Speech, Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen, and John Midgley Salt, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan, and William Sarokin The Social Network, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, and Mark Weingarten True Grit, Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, and Peter F. Kurland Who Will Win: This is a bit harder to call, since the main Best Picture contenders are competing in this category. Inception could take it, but we’re going to take a risk and say that The King’s Speech will prevail here — especially since the film is all about stuttering. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “It’s a shame that Kevin O’Connell, who mixed Unstoppable, wasn’t nominated this year. He’s been nominated twenty times and still hasn’t won.”

Nominees Alice in Wonderland, Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas, and Sean Phillips Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1, Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz, and Nicolas Aithadi Hereafter, Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski, and Joe Farrell Inception, Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, and Peter Bebb Iron Man 2, Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright, and Daniel Sudick Who Will Win: Here’s one category where most of the nominees (except for Hereafter … which, seriously, why is it even in here? Those effects were awful) actually made more money than Inception. That said, it’s hard not to feel like Nolan’s film has this one in the bag. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Everybody talks about CGI, but Inception was refreshingly old-school. The freight train speeding down the street was just a tractor-trailer made up to look like a train. And do you know how they did those lateral explosions in the Paris café sequence? They used an air cannon!”

Nominees Day & Night: From Pixar, a wordless tale of how two nondescript creatures called Day and Night learn to co-exist. The Gruffalo: A surprisingly lengthy adaptation of the children’s story about a mouse who dares to go into a dangerous forest. Let’s Pollute: A faux-educational movie about the history and importance of pollution. The Lost Thing: The tale of a boy’s relationship with a bizarre, giant creature that appears to be half-mollusk, half-industrial contraption. Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary): A somewhat plotless but lovingly animated scrapbook/travelogue about Madagascar. Who Will Win: Day & Night also won the Annie award (it was the only one of the Oscar contenders to score an Annie nomination, though a number of them were shortlisted), and it seems like a mortal lock here, especially since it played alongside the much-nominated and wildly beloved Toy Story 3. Still, voters could be swayed by the star power of The Gruffalo (its voice cast includes King’s Speech nominee Helena Bonham-Carter) or the droll environmental message of Let’s Pollute, whose ironic whimsy recalls that of last year’s upset winner Logorama. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Day & Night may be a computer-animated Pixar film, but it also incorporates traditional hand-drawn animation, which probably gives it even more appeal to the broader Academy electorate.”

Nominees The Confession: A young boy is worried he has no sins to repent in his first confession. His friend decides to help him commit a bit of mischief. Chaos reigns. The Crush: A schoolboy in love with his teacher challenges her fiancé to a duel. A duel to the death. And he’s not kidding around. God of Love: A lovesick crooner and darts master finds his prayers answered when he comes in possession of darts that make people fall in love. Na Wewe: In the middle of the Rwandan civil war, a van is stopped and its passengers have to prove their nationality. Wish 143: A teenager dying of cancer is asked for his final wish, and replies that he wants to get laid. A chaplain decides to help him out. Who Will Win: The Confession may be the favorite, with its slick, assuredly professional tale that includes all the elements Oscar short voters like to see: adorable kids, religious imagery, ludicrous plot twists, and wild tonal shifts. Like God of Love, it also won a Student Academy Award, but God’s charming and offbeat love story could emerge victorious if the other films, with their more serious overtones, split their votes. We pick God of Love, but full disclosure: Writer-director-star Luke Matheny is a Vulture Picture Palace alumnus. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “There were two films this year that focused on the relationship between young kids and priests, and there were two films this year which had an opening scene set in a classroom. This category is nothing if not consistent.”

Nominees Killing in the Name Poster Girl Strangers No More Sun Come Up The Warriors of Qiugang Who Will Win: Strangers No More, whose subject matter manages to touch on pretty much every crisis spot in the world, while also giving us troubled kids, and an optimistic message. This is pretty much short doc Oscar catnip, though with its single-minded focus on one remarkable individual struggling to reclaim her life, Poster Girl, much like last year’s Music by Prudence, could prove to be a sentimental favorite. Smart Thing to Say When the Winner Is Announced: “Hey, wouldn’t it be hilarious if that crazy-producer woman from Music by Prudence showed up again?”