Back in February, Vulture laid odds on the renewal chances of more than two-dozen struggling series. Since then, a number of these bubble shows have had their fates decided: Parks and Recreation, Fringe, and Community, for example, have all been renewed. (To paraphrase Ms. Black, “We, we, we so excited.”) And yet, with about five weeks left before the broadcast networks reveal their fall schedules, at least a dozen shows still have no formal word on whether they’ll be back. So we’ve decided to get proactive here at Vulture and narrow the list of bubble series to eight: Four shows we believe ought to get another chance at life, and four on which we’re ready to pull the proverbial plug. We based our choices on a combination of factors, from a show’s overall creative quality (Detroit 1-8-7) to its ratings merits (Parenthood). By the way, before you Chuck fans hit us with angry e-mails, please note: The only reason Bartowski & Co. didn’t make the list is because, after four seasons, we don’t think Chuck needs our help anymore. It’s a solid, stable Monday-night performer, and we can’t imagine NBC brass not keeping it around for at least one more year.
Why It Should Live: When you pay top dollar to get a former Friend to star in your sitcom, it’s understandable that you’d want instant results. But sorry, ABC: This is not 1998. Big names don’t even guarantee sampling anymore, let alone the instant embrace of an audience. And while audiences likely realized the title was meant ironically and were excited at the prospect of more Chandlerian dourness, they may have been put off by just how how cranky he is. But once you get past that, there’s lots to like about Sunshine, including a deep bench of great supporting actors (led by Allison Janney) and the comforting presence of Perry himself. Like his ex-castmate Courteney Cox, Perry was genetically engineered to be on TV. And just as Cougar Town took a beat or two to find itself, we think Sunshine can fix some of its flaws (including the sitcom-itis smartly diagnosed by Hampton Stevens in a recent post on TheAtlantic.com). The niche-y Sunshine could also benefit from not being behind the incompatible monster hit Modern Family; ABC would be much better off saving Sunshine and pairing it with Cougar Town next fall as part of a new comedy night.
Odds of Survival: 50-50. On the plus side, Sunshine is ABC’s No. 1 new comedy of the season. Yes, it had the powerful Modern Family lead-in, but several of its episodes came after MF reruns. It’s also faced the final, generally highest-rated half-hour of Fox’s American Idol, which makes its respectable ratings even more impressive. On the other hand, Sunshine was developed by former ABC chief Steve McPherson. That means new boss Paul Lee could easily ax Sunshine without feeling any sense of personal failure for having spent so much coin on a Big Star.
Why It Should Live: Fox likes taking chances with edgy fare, and those bets have paid off in recent years with dramas such as Glee, Fringe, and 24. But the last time the network successfully launched a straight-ahead procedural drama was with Bones, all the way back in 2005. And that’s why keeping Code alive is so key: The network desperately needs a fresh, new story-driven drama, particularly with Bones and House both getting up in years. Fox execs had hoped Lie to Me would fill that gap, but it just never gained traction. And while Code has struggled behind House, it hasn’t collapsed the way Lone Star did in the fall. Given the show’s strong pedigree (Shawn Ryan is the exec producer) and the tough competition from ABC’s reality franchises and CBS’s comedies, it’s not surprising that Code hasn’t immediately clicked with audiences. The network should use the summer to showcase season-one repeats and then immediately relaunch in the fall.
Odds of Survival: 60-40. Lie to Me and Human Target have had multiple chances and failed. Plus, you’d think Fox would want to bring back at least one new drama from the 2010–11 season.
Why It Should Live: We’re not going to lie: We really haven’t watched this show much since the very promising pilot (thanks to The Good Wife and Parenthood, there’s already plenty of compelling drama Tuesdays at ten). But we’ve heard from plenty of folks who have stuck by it and insist the series is a very well-done cop procedural. And that includes some major critics, like USA Today’s Robert Bianco, who last month called 1-8-7 “the best new broadcast show of the season … Without feeling forced or precious, the show has mastered the whole dramatic stretch: funny when it wants to be and yet moving when it needs to be.” ABC has done this show no favors by sticking it in a time slot against two shows with cultlike followings and making the wholly incompatible V its lead-in. This is a show that, like Code, would benefit from a repeat summer run. Then, once pilot season is over, ABC could recruit a name actor whose project didn’t go to series and convince him or her to join 187 as a special guest star in order to lure folks into sampling the show once more. Or, if it wants to be really clever, ABC might even try getting Steven Bochco’s blessing and asking Dennis Franz to reprise his iconic role as Detective Sipowicz, newly transferred to the Motor City.
Odds of Survival: Long. Like Sunshine, ABC chief Lee has no vested interest in 1-8-7 and may very well fall so in love with his own development that he won’t see the need to stick with a show that’s yet to find an audience, despite a season-long run on Tuesdays. Also, if spring newcomer Body of Proof continues to perform well, there’ll be even less reason for ABC to keep Detroit alive.
Why It Should Live: Unlike the other shows on this list, Parenthood actually has a decent ratings track record. While its overall audience of around 5 million viewers is pretty small, it generally averages around a 2.1 rating in the under 50 demo — right behind CBS’s The Good Wife as the 10 p.m. Tuesday leader. But the show is also a huge DVR hit, adding 38 percent more viewers after its initial telecast. However you add up its ratings, Parenthood is NBC’s second-highest-rated drama among folks under 50. Add in critical adoration and an upscale audience profile, and the only mystery is why NBC hasn’t already renewed this show.
Odds of Survival: Very High. We’re guessing new NBC chief Robert Greenblatt just wants to take his time and see how his new pilots are turning out before making a commitment to any of his bubble dramas. But it’s hard to see this show not returning.
Why It Must Die: Now to the deathwatch. Or is it death wish? Dick Wolf already tried to do L&O in L.A. a decade ago. It was called Dragnet, and it failed; this desperate attempt to keep Wolf’s cash machine alive has similarly flopped with audiences. We didn’t even bother to check out the revamped LOLA that debuted last night because, quite frankly, we’ve already had our fond memories of the original L&O tainted enough by Wolf and NBC’s co-dependent conspiracy to extend the cops-and-lawyer brand well beyond its natural lifespan. With Criminal Intent starting its final season and SVU about to suffer the loss of underrated show-runner Neal Baer, things are tough enough for L&O without the unnecessary LOLA hanging around.
Odds of Death: Solid. NBC’s new Comcast ownership doesn’t have the same blind devotion to Wolf that GE did, and Greenblatt needs the real estate to try out more original ideas. Still, if the heavily hyped revamp shows a pulse, NBC might be tempted to keep LOLA on life support for a second season.
Why It Must Die: It’s not funny. At all. And we got tired of typing out $#*! back in October.
Odds of Death: About 80 percent. CBS reduced its episode order for the show, rarely a sign of confidence. Its performance after Big Bang Theory, while not disastrous, was also nothing impressive. And we get the sense that even CBS is a little embarrassed it ever green-lit a TV show based on an overhyped Twitter feed. The only reason it might return is if Chuck Lorre can’t find a replacement for Charlie Sheen and Two and a Half Men completely disappears. Even then, we think the network would prefer to bring back HIMYM rip-off Mad Love rather than serving up another season of this $#*!.
Why It Must Die: We’re not afraid to admit that we were super psyched when ABC announced plans to reboot this eighties semi-classic. And the first couple of episodes were actually pretty good. But then the show just sort of petered out, amid reports of all sorts of behind-the-scenes drama as ABC and producers battled over the show’s direction. The network still brought the show back for a second season, but the buzz never followed. Ratings actually haven’t been awful; in fact, V has performed the best of all of ABC’s Tuesday laggards — including Detroit 1-8-7, which we’re advocating saving. But here’s the thing: While 1-8-7 could easily add viewers in a second season, it’s hard to see anyone who’s not already on the V bandwagon hopping onboard now. If the show were as amazing as Fringe, or if ABC had a history of serving the sci-fi crowd the way Fox has done over the years, we could make the case for keeping V alive. Instead, we suggest ABC order a four-hour mini-series to let producers wrap up loose ends — and set up the inevitable Syfy reboot that’ll launch in 2015.
Odds of Death: About 50-50. If ABC execs look only at ratings, they might convince themselves to give V another shot. There are a lot of holes in ABC’s schedule and the network needs some consistency if it wants to avoid launching a dozen totally new shows next fall.
Why It Must Die: This has always been the weakest entry in the CSI trilogy, and a move to Fridays has only hastened the viewer exodus. Among folks under 50, the only CBS drama that got lower ratings this season was Medium — and it’s already been canceled. We’re not going to pretend to follow CSI:NY closely enough to debate the show’s creative merits. But with CBS doing so well across the board, the network needs to open up real estate if it wants to start taking chances with more new programming. And we’d like to think that getting rid of one CSI would boost the storytelling on the original and CSI: Miami. After all, there are only so many freaky ways to kill a person.
Odds of Death: About 30 percent. The show’s chances have improved a bit now that the Eye’s spring tryout Chaos has completely flopped and the Criminal Minds spinoff has proven to be an underperformer. With The Defenders also unlikely to return, CBS’s schedule isn’t quite as packed. Plus, CBS makes a ton of money from selling the CSI series overseas (and in domestic syndication). It’ll all come down to how impressed CBS is with its 2011–12 new series development.
