oscar futures
Oscar Futures: This Means War Horse
Every week between now and January 24, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture's Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who's up, who's down, and who's currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.
| Best Picture |  UP: War Horse. Steven Spielberg's equine epic has started sneaking across the country, and a lot of the early reactions (though the trades and high-profile critics have yet to weigh in) are raves. |
 DOWN: J. Edgar. It finally screened last night, and even the good reviews were simply polite. Unfortunately, it also got its fair share of high-profile pans. |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: The Artist; The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; The Help; Midnight in Paris; Moneyball; War Horse | ||
| Best Director |  UP: Steven Spielberg (War Horse). It always seemed like a done deal, and those early War Horse reviews solidify Spielberg's standing. |
 DOWN: George Clooney (The Ides of March). Grantland's Mark Harris continues to damn the movie with faint praise: "[Oscar voters] will watch Ides. They’ll enjoy it. And then, in all likelihood, they’ll vote for something else." |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris); Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist); Alexander Payne (The Descendants); Steven Spielberg (War Horse) | ||
| Best Actor |  UP: Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar). Though he wasn't that impressed by the movie, Hitfix's Kris Tapley still rated DiCaprio highly and predicted "that elusive first Oscar win." |
 DOWN: Jeremy Irvine (War Horse). Irvine is the film's human lead, but "many will consider him too earnest and simple," according to AICN, so no one in this category should fear a sudden dark horse (sorry about that). |
| CURRENT PREDIX: George Clooney (The Descendants); Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar); Jean Dujardin (The Artist); Michael Fassbender (Shame); Brad Pitt (Moneyball) | ||
| Best Actress |  UP: Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn). Newsweek's new issue is a virtual mash note to Williams, and that heartbreaking pixie haircut story? Oh, Michelle! |
 DOWN: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin). Great trailer, but the pundits polled for Gurus of Gold all agree that Swinton is bringing up the rear in this category. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs); Viola Davis (The Help); Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo); Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady); Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn) | ||
| Best Supporting Actor |  UP: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult). "Now a Best Supporting Actor contender ... definitely," pronounced Jeff Wells after checking out the film this week. |
 DOWN: Armie Hammer (J. Edgar). Hammer might be hindered by the bad old-age makeup cited in so many of today's reviews. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn); Albert Brooks (Drive); Patton Oswalt (Young Adult); Christopher Plummer (Beginners); Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) | ||
| Best Supporting Actress |  UP: Carey Mulligan (Shame). Watch this space. Pundits are underrating Mulligan, who gives a brave, searing, full-frontal performance in Shame — she's even got a song! If people are checking out Fassbender, Mulligan will get noticed, too. |
 DOWN: Judi Dench (J. Edgar). The performance doesn't appear to be sizable enough, even if Dench is always a player.
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Berenice Bejo (The Artist); Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close); Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids); Carey Mulligan (Shame); Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus); Octavia Spencer (The Help) | ||
