Who Should (and Will) Win at the Golden Globes This Weekend?

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Photo: HBO/A24

The Golden Globe Awards are this Sunday night, and everything about them seem even more unpredictable than usual. What will women say on the red carpet now that the Time’s Up effort has been established? How will host Seth Meyers use his opening monologue to comment on the wave of sexual-assault allegations that have recently rocked Hollywood? And, most relevant to this particular list of predictions: Which films and TV shows will win?

A number of the races on the movie and television side are really hard to pin down this year. That makes it extra fun for us to haphazardly guess boldly and accurately predict who is going to win in every category. But dammit, that won’t stop us from trying.

FILM

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were clearly two of the HFPA’s favorite films, scoring just about every nomination they could have hoped for. The latter has more heat as a Best Picture front-runner at the Oscars, though, and since the Globes take that sort of thing into account, I suspect it will prevail.
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq

This is Oldman’s very first Golden Globe nomination, an astoundingly late honor in coming but perhaps not a surprise given that the actor is on record calling the HFPA politically skewed and “bent.” Will that be water under the bridge now that the actor is considered by many to be the Oscar front-runner for Darkest Hour? Perhaps, but I think it may peel off enough potential voters to allow the surging Timothée Chalamet to slip through.
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Streep gave us a major Golden Globes moment last year with her Trump-excoriating speech, but The Post hasn’t quite achieved liftoff this awards season. This race will likely come down to McDormand versus Hawkins, and McDormand is the one you want to hear give a speech.
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

Get Out and Lady Bird are two of this year’s freshest Oscar contenders, but the HFPA liked the latter a bit more, nominating two of its performers and Greta Gerwig for Best Screenplay (though neither she nor Jordan Peele was nominated for Best Director).
Should Win: Get Out
Will Win: Lady Bird

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Trim Steve Carell and Ansel Elgort for fronting films that weren’t nominated for the big award, and you have an interesting race. In one corner, there’s Hugh Jackman, a passionate pitchman for his movie who is such a Globes pick. Then there’s Daniel Kaluuya, an exciting welcome-to-the-party choice for an organization that likes to be first to bestow its imprimatur. I think the edge goes to James Franco, though, for what is absolutely the funniest of these five roles.
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Will Win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Helen Mirren, Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

This one is an ingenue battle royale between Ronan and Robbie, but with Ronan’s film much likelier to win in its top category, she ought to have the edge.
Should Win: The sadly overlooked Emma Stone for Battle of the Sexes
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The HFPA was the first organization to screen Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World and threw down for it in a major way, handing the film several nominations. Now that the dust has settled, I think voters will save face by handing the buzzy Christopher Plummer a trophy here over critics’ pick Willem Dafoe and likely Oscar front-runner Sam Rockwell.
Should Win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

This category will likely come down to Laurie Metcalf versus Allison Janney all season, and with such similar arcs — acclaimed TV actress takes a cinematic turn as an overbearing mother — it’s hard to predict which way this will ultimately go. I think Janney, though, has a splashier role and more star power (not to mention a strong association with Globe favorite Aaron Sorkin), and those give her an edge with the HFPA.
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Best Director, Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

When Dunkirk debuted over the summer, many pundits expected Nolan to collect Best Director trophies throughout awards season. That hasn’t quite happened, and Dunkirk showed no particularly surprising strength with the Globes, picking up three nominations. McDonagh and del Toro had films that did much better with this organization, and del Toro is favored for making a more technically demanding project.
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

The Globes came through for Aaron Sorkin in a big way two years ago, handing him an outright win for the Steve Jobs screenplay that couldn’t even score an Oscar nod. That is to say, don’t count Sorkin out here, but Martin McDonagh’s scripting for Three Billboards is just as showy, and the film is better positioned.
Should Win: Lady Bird
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
“Home,” Ferdinand
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Remember Me,” Coco
“The Star,” The Star
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

“Remember Me” is almost certainly the Oscar front-runner, but the Globes just aren’t the Globes unless they go out on at least one wild limb, so I have a hunch they’ll reward The Greatest Showman here.
Should Win: “Remember Me,” Coco
Will Win: “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
Dunkirk

There was no better film score this past year than the one from Phantom Thread. The HFPA may go with The Shape of Water since they clearly loved that movie, but let’s cross our fingers, shall we?
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Will Win: Phantom Thread

Best Motion Picture, Animated
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

It’s gonna be Coco.
Should Win: Coco
Will Win: Coco

Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

A hard one to predict. The Square was the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes and that critical stamp may count for a lot, but the Globes are often swayed by glamour, and they’ve got an Angelina Jolie movie and a drama with Diane Kruger to consider. I think the latter may pull out an unexpected win.
Should Win: The Square
Will Win: In the Fade

TV

Best Television Series - Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us

For the past three years, the Hollywood Foreign Press has rewarded a new drama, which gives The Handmaid’s Tale the advantage as the only newbie in the category this time. The fact that it won the Emmy Award in the same category and tapped into real-world concerns about authoritarianism and rampant misogyny only make it seem like a more obvious choice.

It’s possible voters could finally give this award to Game of Thrones, which has never won it before, or make up for not honoring Stranger Things or This Is Us last year — when The Crown won — by doing it this year. But I doubt that’s going to happen.
Should Win: Honestly, The Leftovers is the right answer. But since the HFPA didn’t even bother nominating it, I’ll go with Handmaid’s, I guess.
Will Win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Black-ish
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Master of None
SMILF
Will & Grace

During its original run on NBC, Will & Grace was nominated for best comedy six times. It never won. I suspect it will continue that losing streak come Sunday night, not only because the Globes favor the new, but because they tend to surprise in the comedy category even more wildly than they do in drama.

Remember two years ago, when Mozart in the Jungle won in this category? Or when Brooklyn Nine-Nine did? Girls? Glee? Globes voters love a comedy/musical underdog, which is why I think this year comes down to The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and SMILF, although I’ll also note that the Italian cinema vibe in Master of None could hold some sway with the HFPA.

Mrs. Maisel and SMILF have some factors working in their favor, though, including assertive female protagonists and women creators in Amy Sherman-Palladino and Frankie Shaw. If Globes voters would like to make a statement in this #MeToo #TimesUp moment, either one of these choices provides a way to do it. I’m honestly not sure which way they’ll go, but I lean toward Mrs. Maisel because I think its buoyancy is more likely to appeal to a wider swath of voters, especially ones who have shown past appreciation for period pieces, at least on the drama side (see: The Crown, Mad Men, Boardwalk Empire).
Should Win: Master of None
Will Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
The Sinner
Top of the Lake: China Girl

Maybe there’s a scenario in which Big Little Lies doesn’t take this award. Theoretically, the wild card Globes voters could give this to The Sinner, for example. But it’s hard for me to imagine that happening.
Should Win: Big Little Lies
Will Win: Big Little Lies

Best Actor in a Television Series - Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Last year Sterling K. Brown didn’t get nominated for his work on This Is Us because he was already recognized in the supporting actor category — which lumps drama, comedy, and limited series together — for his portrayal of Chris Darden in The People v. O.J. Simpson. (He ultimately lost to Hugh Laurie in The Night Manager.) This year, he’s moved up to compete in the lead actor race, where I think he has a very good chance of winning.

Then again, the Globe could also be taken by Freddie Highmore, the star of another sentimental breakout network hit, ABC’s The Good Doctor. Jason Bateman, another newcomer to this category for Ozark, could walk away with it, too, since the HFPA seems to like him — he’s been nominated twice, and won once, for playing Michael Bluth on Arrested Development. The fact that he plays an anti-hero could be an advantage as well, since actors in darker roles tend to dominate in this category. In theory, that should be an advantage for Schreiber and Odenkirk, too, though both have been nominated for the past two years without winning.

Basically, I’m still going with Brown, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things go in another direction.
Should Win: Either Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us or Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Will Win: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Best Actress in a Television Series - Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Claire Foy won this last year. Since the Globes usually don’t repeat themselves, I’m inclined to think she won’t win again. Of the other four nominees, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Elisabeth Moss strike me as having the best chance, particularly Moss, who gives a powerful performance and already has an Emmy for it.
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Will Win: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Best Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

As previously noted, Will & Grace has been nominated for a bunch of Globes and never won. That losing streak extends to its actors. Every one of the four principal actors has been nominated in their respective categories multiple times over the years, but never emerged victorious. This year, only McCormack made the cut. I suspect he will win as payback for all the slights, especially if Will & Grace doesn’t prevail in the overall comedy category. Personally, I’d vote for either Anthony Anderson, who has never won for Black-ish even though he’s the comedic and emotional anchor of the show, or Kevin Bacon, who was magnetic in I Love Dick. But my instincts say this one goes to McCormack.
Should Win: Either Anthony Anderson, Black-ish or Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
Will Win: Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

Best Actress in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Issa Rae, Insecure
Frankie Shaw, SMILF

With the exception of Issa Rae, everyone in this category is a new nominee this year and all of them appear in shows that have been critically praised but could certainly benefit from the signal boost a Golden Globe win would provide.

Just like the best comedy race, I suspect this will come down to Mrs. Maisel — a.k.a. Rachel Brosnahan — and SMILF, in the form of its star and creator Frankie Shaw. And again, I give Brosnahan the slight edge here simply because her role is less understated and also requires her to convincingly deliver those long, confessional, stream-of-conscious comedy routines, which she does with gusto.

I’d like to see Pamela Adlon win because she’s been in the business for so long, her portrayal of Sam on Better Things is both funny and grounded in reality, and she also directed every damn episode this season, which is a major achievement. But I think Brosnahan has the advantage.

Should Win: Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Robert De Niro, Wizard of Lies
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius

These are all strong performance, but only one required the actor to play multiple roles, including an iconic one he first took on nearly 30 years ago. Yes, I’m referring to Kyle MacLachlan, who won his first Golden Globe back in 1991 for his portrayal of Agent Dale Cooper and I believe will win his second for again playing him, not to mention his evil alter ego Mr. C and the irrepressibly out of it Dougie Jones.

Should Win: Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return
Will Win: Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return

Best Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Globes voters love major Hollywood stars, and this category is filled with them. But just as Emmy voters were, I expect HFPA members to be most persuaded by Kidman’s knockout performance in Big Little Lies.
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Will Win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Best Supporting Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan
Alexander Skarsgård, Big Little Lies
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
David Thewlis, Fargo

If Globes voters go big for Big Little Lies, Skarsgård could win in this category. But something tells me this one is going to land in the hands David Harbour, for a few reasons: Stranger Things hasn’t won a Globe yet, Harbour brings a lot of masculine shades to his role as Chief Jim Hopper, and you just know that dude’s going to make a hell of an acceptance speech if he wins.
Should Win: David Harbour, Stranger Things
Will Win: David Harbour, Stranger Things

Best Supporting Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

This is either going to go Dern or Dowd, in my opinion, both of whom transform into phenomenal balls of quiet rage in their respective performances. Dowd has never been nominated for a Golden Globe before, so voters may want to honor her with her first. As for Dern, the voters love her; she already has three Globes to her credit. I suspect they love her so much that, in what was a particularly strong year for her, they will find it hard to resist rewarding her again.

Should Win: Either Laura Dern, Big Little Lies or Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Will Win: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies

2018 Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should?