Tony Predictions: Sturm und Drang Division

Courtesy of The Coast of Utopia, Frost/Nixon, Radio Golf, The Year of Magical Thinking

Just one day to go until the Tony Award nominations are announced Tuesday! After one of the richest Broadway seasons in years, the noms will finally have some drama; this is the first year in memory where it’s possible that not a single totally embarrassing piece of crap will get nominated for a top award. On Friday we offered our predictions for the musical categories; now it’s time for the plays.

Best Play
Locks: The Coast of Utopia; Frost/Nixon
Probably in: Radio Golf
Fighting it out for the last two spots: The Little Dog Laughed, The Year of Magical Thinking

It hardly matters, as Tom Stoppard’s epic trilogy — considered for Tony purposes as one play — is a dead lock for the win. But which of the final two will make it? The Little Dog Laughed was widely enjoyed but closed ages ago. The Year of Magical Thinking was poorly received by critics, but would the Tony committee really snub Joan Didion? We say no.

Best Play Revival
Locks: Inherit the Wind; Journey’s End
Probably in: Talk Radio
On the bubble: A Moon for the Misbegotten
Possible surprises: Butley; Translations

Per Michael Riedel, the Tony nominators love Journey’s End, so despite its lack of a high-profile cast, we’re calling it a lock alongside the starry Inherit the Wind. We think A Moon for the Misbegotten will take that final slot, beating out its now-closed competitors.

Best Actor
Locks: Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Liev Schreiber, Talk Radio
Probably in: Brían O’Byrne, The Coast of Utopia; Christopher Plummer, Inherit the Wind
The horse race for the final spot: Hugh Dancy, Journey’s End; Boyd Gaines, Journey’s End; Nathan Lane, Butley; Bill Nighy, The Vertical Hour; Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon; Kevin Spacey, A Moon for the Misbegotten

What a traffic jam! Surely some producers out there wish that, as in the Oscars, category fraud was more of a possibility at the Tonys, so actors like Nighy and Sheen could be pushed down to the near-empty Featured Actor category, where they’d be shoo-ins. Be that as it may, we have no real idea which of these powerhouses will get the nod, so we’ll guess Nighy for being the much-loved best part of a high-profile British play.

Best Actress
As only eight actresses are even eligible for this award (as opposed to the fifteen possible lead actors), it might be easier to figure who’s out:

Locked out: Annie Parisse, Prelude to a Kiss (not famous enough); Julianne Moore, The Vertical Hour (plenty famous but poorly received); Swoozie Kurtz, Heartbreak House (show already forgotten)
Nominees: Eve Best, A Moon for the Misbegotten; Angela Lansbury, Deuce; Vanessa Redgrave, The Year of Magical Thinking; Marian Seldes, Deuce; Julie White, The Little Dog Laughed

Earlier: Tony Predictions, Song-and-Dance Division

Tony Predictions: Sturm und Drang Division