Oscar Futures: Revolutionary Road Stumbles; Is Doubt a Sure Thing?

Every week between now and February 2, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or, sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen to insider gossip, comb the Oscar blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture UP: Doubt. Those five SAG Awards nods mean it has the support of the Academy's biggest voting bloc (actors). Not surprising, since it includes more acting than any other 2008 film, but still. DOWN: Revolutionary Road. The same day on which Paramount took out seven full-page ads in the Times for the film, it failed to get a SAG nod for Best Cast. Also, its omission from top-ten lists from AFI, NBR, and BFCA doesn't bode well historically, posits EW's Dave Karger.
CURRENT PREDIX: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E
Best Director UP: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon. Despite some bumps earlier, his movie now seems like a lock for a Best Picture nod, which means he'll probably sneak in there too. DOWN: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight. His movie made a billion dollars — so what? Apart from Heath Ledger, Knight's had virtually no impact on early awards.
CURRENT PREDIX: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road; Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight; Gus Van Sant, Milk
Best Actor UP: Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. He's scored nods from SAG and the Golden Globes, which certainly seems like a good sign (unless they were just trying to get Brangelina to show up for their awards shows). DOWN: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road. He was snubbed by SAG, and awards-givers don't seem very excited about his movie in general this week.
CURRENT PREDIX: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road; Clint Eastwood Gran Torino; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress UP: Meryl Streep, Doubt. Cratering support for Revolutionary Road could put her in the lead. DOWN: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. After she scored an armload of critics awards, a cold shoulder from SAG makes it seem like a long shot again. Will Melissa Leo steal the art-house vote?
CURRENT PREDIX: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor UP: Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder. Last week a Golden Globe nomination and now one from SAG — could he actually pull this off? We still don't think so, but maybe! DOWN: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road. A month ago, he was Heath Ledger's biggest competition and now he's losing nominations to guys from Tropic Thunder.
CURRENT PREDIX: Josh Brolin, Milk; James Franco, Milk; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress UP: Viola Davis, Doubt. She's been steadily building momentum, and Doubt's surprise showing at yesterday's SAG nominations certainly helps her case (who cares if she's only in it for ten minutes!). Could she beat Penélope? DOWN: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married. Screwed over by both SAG and the Globes. Did her low-key performance not leave an impression?
CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Kate Winslet, The Reader
Revolutionary Road Stumbles; Is Doubt a Sure Thing?