Oscar Futures: Clint Tells Batman to Get Off His Lawn

Every week between now and January 22, when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or, sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen to insider gossip, comb the Oscar blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture	UP: Gran Torino. Yes, it would almost certainly lose to Slumdog Millionaire, but Oscar-watching Daves Karger and Carr think it could sneak in there.	DOWN: The Dark Knight. Ignored by BAFTA — maybe it's not a lock for that fifth slot!
	CURRENT PREDIX: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, The Dark Knight

Best Director	UP: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. His predictable victory at the Golden Globes and Slumdog's BAFTA nomination count (along with the fact that his movie's won basically every other award), make his lead seem even more insurmountable than it was last week.	DOWN: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight. With Gran Torino and The Reader making last-minute surges, will he and his movie get snubbed?
	CURRENT PREDIX: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight; Gus Van Sant, Milk
Best Actor	UP: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. How great was his Golden Globes speech? How many Academy members did he win over on Sunday?	DOWN: Sean Penn, Milk. Meanwhile, for the third time, Penn backed out of the ceremony.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Clint Eastwood Gran Torino; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress	UP: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. She's been underestimated this awards season (and snubbed by BAFTA), but does her Globes win bode well? We say yes.	DOWN: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. Sure, she won two Globes, but will continued confusion over her two worthy performances hurt her chances? Also, nobody liked her acceptance speeches.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor	UP: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire. He cried through the entire Golden Globes — wouldn't it be more fun to see him make an emotional speech than a monotone Christopher Nolan, accepting for Heath Ledger?	DOWN: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire. Too bad! Heath's totally going to win.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Josh Brolin, Milk; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress	UP: Viola Davis, Doubt. Will this week's incredible revelation that she played the part better than even Oprah could've give her the push she needs?	DOWN: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Winslet, Davis, and Marisa Tomei all look like viable contenders now — did Penélope peak too early?
	CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Kate Winslet, The Reader