The London bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday’s Oscars! What can we learn from the pros? Slumdog Millionaire is a heavy favorite for Best Picture. (Most books have Benjamin Button next, at 5-1.) Heath Ledger is a total lock. (Some books are paying off just 1:100 odds on Best Supporting Actor.) And Taraji P. Henson is a 24-to-1 underdog for Best Supporting Actress. (Nate Silver’s gonna be rich!)
But whether you get your Oscar odds from London bookies, or American statistician geniuses, or some dude in Vegas who just asks his casino employees what movies they like, all Oscar odds have one thing in common: They only tell you who’s gonna win. But what about the parts of the Oscars we really care about, like the speeches, the dresses, and the inexplicable interpretive-dance routines? That’s where Vulture’s Oscar Odds come in.
Angelina Jolie: 500-1 that she introduces a “Tribute to Tinseltown Tots” montage alongside Octomom, Nadya Suleman.
Kate Winslet: 3-1 that she prints the other nominees’ names on a card worn around her arm like a quarterback.
Anne Hathaway: 5-2 that if she wins, she begins her acceptance speech, “Don’t worry, it’s only seltzer!”
Meryl Streep: 2-1 that the playful shrug she gives the camera when she doesn’t win will be more endearing than anything the winner says in her speech.
Melissa Leo: 1-8 that she wears a dress that costs more than her Frozen River character makes in a year.
Sean Penn: 250-1 that he shows his support for the gay community by bringing Andy Dick as his date.
Brad Pitt: 7-1 that he appears onstage in old-man-baby guise to present an award.
Frank Langella: 3-2 that Billy Bush makes him flash the Nixon double-V on the red carpet.
Richard Jenkins: 1-3 that he will be totally adorable.
Mickey Rourke: 1-5 that his entire acceptance speech will a tearful ode to his Chihuahua, Loki.
Philip Seymour Hoffman: 50-1 that he will merrily reveal that Father Flynn really did do it.
Robert Downey Jr.: 25-1 that he will appear onstage made up as some other race, like Thai, or Swedish?
Josh Brolin: 10-1 that he and Will Ferrell will present an award both dressed as George W. Bush.
Michael Shannon: 3-2 that his ten minutes on-screen in Revolutionary Road will still exceed his time on-screen during the Oscars.
Heath Ledger: 1-1 that if he somehow loses, the winner will feel terrible.
Amy Adams: 5,000-1
that, upon losing, the preternaturally sunny actress will scream “Fuck the world!” and storm out of the auditorium.
Taraji P. Henson: 5-1
that, introduced to Brad Pitt, she won’t recognize him
Marisa Tomei: 4-1
that, on the red carpet, she will wearily but gamely answer three dozen more questions about being topless in the movie.
Viola Davis: 2-1
that if she wins, she will receive a standing ovation for overall awesomeness.
Penelope Cruz: 1-4
that her congratulatory kiss from presenter Javier Bardem will be so hot
that Nielsen ratings will drop as viewers nationwide take cold showers.
Ron Howard: 50-1 that if he wins, he’ll apologize for having as many Oscars as Scorsese, Huston, Fellini, Hitchcock, Altman, and Bergman put together.
Stephen Daldry: 25-1 that his date will be the three Billys from Billy Elliot, occupying one seat.
David Fincher:10-1 that if he wins, he’ll openly wonder why he’s winning for this trifle and not for Zodiac.
Danny Boyle: 4-1 that he will attempt to thank every one of Mumbai’s eight million slum dwellers by name.
Gus Van Sant: 1-3 that his tie will be hilarious.
that the actual David Frost will reveal onstage that he and Nixon “were totally high” during the original interviews.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 5-1
that its loss will be blamed on the fact that voters who started watching it in December had not finished it by Oscar night.
that some jerk will write an Op-Ed claiming its loss for Best Picture proves America isn’t ready for gay rights.
The Reader: 1-1
that Harvey Weinstein is completely positive he will win.
Slumdog Millionaire: 1-10
that somehow, lovable blowhard Anil Kapoor
will wind up with this Oscar on his mantel.
Is classy and cool throughout ceremony, invited back next year: 25-1.
Forced to duet with Billy Crystal on opening medley: 18-1.
Urbane “How ‘bout that Harold Pinter, huh?” is met with silence: 15-1.
Accepts apology from Baz Luhrmann: 10-1.
Disembowels streaker with adamantium claws: 5-1.
Danny Elfman: 15-1.
Diablo Cody: 12-1.
Catherine Martin (costume designer, Australia): 10-1.
M.I.A. and her baby: 1-1.
Slumdog sweeps all nine awards it’s nominated for: 15-1.
Benjamin Button is completely shut out: 20-1.
Doubt wins three of four acting prizes: 50-1.
Academy admits mistake, gives Best Picture to WALL*E: 150-1.
Jack Nicholson stays home: 200-1.