the future

Vulture’s 2009 Pre-Depression Summer-Movie Preview

At this point, can anything save us from a total economic apocalypse? If so, it probably won’t be Hollywood! Bolstered by superhero sequels Spider-Man 3 and The Dark Knight, plus jacked-up ticket prices, the past two summers have set all-time box-office records — but this year’s schedule features fewer sure bets and fewer movies overall, meaning 2009’s May-to-August season will likely be the first down one since 2005. So just how badly will 2008 cream 2009? Vulture gazed into its crystal ball, comparing this summer’s movies with the ones that topped the box office in last year’s eighteen biggest warm-weather weekends. How much money will they make? And how will they fare as we slide ever further into the second Great Depression? We speculate!

Impending depression be damned – moviegoers will not be denied shirtless Jackman! In fact, many still-employed Americans quit their jobs just to see Wolverine early on Friday. Clearly, though, it’s no match for last year’s Iron Man. Predicted opening weekend: $50 million Also opening: Battle for Terra, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past Same weekend last year: Iron Man ($98.6 million), Made of Honor ($14.7 million), Baby Mama ($10.1 million) Winner: 2008
Box-office hopes are high for J.J. Abrams’s sexed-up Star Trek reboot after nerds make its trailer the most downloaded one in movie history – but it disappoints slightly after those same increasingly budget-conscious, BitTorrent-savvy nerds also make it the most downloaded movie in movie history. Iron Man’s second weekend in 2008 scores a decisive victory. Predicted opening weekend: $45 million Also opening: Next Day Air Same weekend last year: Iron Man ($51.2 million), What Happens in Vegas ($20.2 million), Speed Racer ($18.6 million) Winner: 2008
The sequel to The Da Vinci Code, this week’s only movie in wide release, falls short of its predecessor’s $77 million debut, presumably because secret plots to destroy the Vatican are no longer American audiences’ chief concern. Whatever the cause, Pope Benedict declares this his most successful boycott ever. Predicted opening weekend: $50 million Also opening: Nothing! Same weekend last year: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian ($55 million), Iron Man ($31.8 million), What Happens in Vegas ($13.9 million) Winner: 2008
After California’s fiscal crisis necessitates a huge, taxpayer-funded federal bailout, moviegoers are livid when they learn that McG has made the first-ever Terminator movie in which the state’s governor does not die at the end. Still, most critics agree that the film’s lessons about surviving in a robot-controlled, postapocalyptic desert wasteland will probably come in handy soon. Predicted opening weekend: $40 million Also opening: Dance Flick Same weekend last year: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($100.1 million), The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian ($22.8 million), Iron Man ($20.4 million) Winner: 2008
To no one’s surprise, Pixar delivers another masterpiece, this one starring a 78-year-old hero who proves it’s never too late for an adventure. Up bows big, but the studio faces its first backlash after a deficit-panicked Congress sees the movie, then slashes Social Security benefits and raises the retirement age to 90. Predicted opening weekend: $65 million Also opening: Drag Me to Hell Same weekend last year: Sex and the City ($57 million), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($44.8 million), The Strangers ($21 million) Winner: 2009
Who says Will Ferrell can’t open a PG-rated comedy, or that people won’t go see a movie based on a seventies TV show they can’t remember? As a nation is gripped by the year’s first heat wave, foreclosure victims with small children need somewhere to go, and movie theaters have air-conditioning. Predicted opening weekend: $50 million Also opening: My Life in Ruins Same weekend last year: Kung Fu Panda ($60.2 million), You Don’t Mess With the Zohan ($38.5 million), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($22.8 million) Winner: 2008
If you thought Eddie Murphy misread the wants of the American filmgoer with Meet Dave, how about a movie in which he plays an investment banker who gets all financial advice from his 8-year-old daughter’s imaginary friends? Predicted opening weekend: $8 million Also opening: The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 Same weekend last year: The Incredible Hulk ($55.4 million), Kung Fu Panda ($33.6 million), The Happening ($30.5 million) Winner: 2008
Even though this Judd Apatow-produced biblical comedy stars the typically reliable Michael Cera, its box office is more like Walk Hard than Superbad. In a terrifying coincidence, the same week, the Dow Jones average falls to Year One levels. Predicted opening weekend: $12 million Also opening: The Proposal Same weekend last year: Get Smart ($38.7 million), The Incredible Hulk ($22.1 million), Kung Fu Panda ($21.9 million) Winner: 2008
Michael Bay’s latest is a monster hit, as tapped-out taxpayers applaud his use of construction vehicles in explosive battle sequences instead of on wasteful infrastructure-repair projects. Still, though, kids are finally out of school and Hollywood only has one blockbuster slotted for this weekend? Weak! Predicted opening weekend: $75 million Also opening: My Sister’s Keeper Same weekend last year: Wall-E ($63.1 million), Wanted ($50.9 million), Get Smart ($20.2 million) Winner: 2009
Somehow, astonishingly, Michael Mann’s actioner about a guy who kills bankers during a depression manages to capture filmgoers’ imaginations – so much so that president Obama orders Congressional hearings on Johnny Depp’s possible role in the mortgage crisis. Predicted opening weekend: $70 million Also opening: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs Same weekend last year: Hancock ($62.6 million), Wall-E ($32.5 million), Wanted ($20.1 million) Winner: 2009
As Americans begin selling off their clothes for gas money, the word “fashion” disappears from the national lexicon. A desperate Universal insists that Sacha Baron Cohen switch his new film’s name to Borat 2: My Wife, prompting him to disavow the project and eschew the traditional publicity rounds. Predicted opening weekend: $20 million Also opening: I Love You, Beth Cooper Same weekend last year: Hellboy II ($34.5 million), Hancock ($32.1 million), Journey to the Center of the Earth ($21 million) Winner: 2008
Realizing that there will only be two Harry Potter movies after this one – which makes a ton of money, but less than The Dark Knight, obviously – a desperate Timothy Geithner mails J.K. Rowling a trillion dollars and promises her double if she’ll write another book. She passes. Predicted opening weekend: $80 million Also opening: (500) Days of Summer Same weekend last year: The Dark Knight ($158.4 million), Mamma Mia! ($27.8 million), Hancock ($14 million) Winner: 2008
Despite its obvious Blart potential, Disney’s film about an elite squad of superagent gerbils does not resonate with the American public in quite the same way that Beverly Hills Chihuahua or Alvin and the Chipmunks did, possibly because only Wall Street’s elite have the disposable income it takes to properly care for pets anymore. Needless to say, its opening pales in comparison to Batman’s amazing second weekend last year. Predicted opening weekend: $25 million Also opening: All Good Things, Orphan, The Ugly Truth Same weekend last year: The Dark Knight ($75.2 million), Step Brothers ($30.9 million), Mamma Mia! ($17.7 million) Winner: 2008
With the second Great Depression in full swing and showing no signs of abating, hungry, jobless Americans are desperate for light, escapist entertainment about people whose problems are smaller than their own – like this Apatow movie starring Adam Sandler as a guy dying from cancer! Still, it’s not quite good enough to beat Dark Knight’s third weekend last year. Predicted opening weekend: $40 million Also opening: They Came From Upstairs Same weekend last year: The Dark Knight ($42.6 million), The Mummy 3 ($40.5 million), Step Brothers ($16.5 million) Winner: 2008
Seeking something that will remind them of the carefree way they blew money in the eighties, Americans stay home and listen to the Bangles. But those who do go see G.I. Joe demand a refund when the film fails to include a “Knowing Is Half the Battle” PSA at the end. Last year’s movies win again! Predicted opening weekend: $15 million Also opening: Julie and Julia, When in Rome Same weekend last year: The Dark Knight ($26.1 million), Pineapple Express ($23.2 million), The Mummy 3 ($16.5 million) Winner: 2008
Feeling battered and bruised by the ever-worsening financial climate, audiences find themselves frustrated by this tale of a woman and her husband who involuntarily travels through time. Mainly because the time traveler is a librarian and not an economist. Predicted opening weekend: $13 million Also opening: Bandslam, District 9, The Goods: The Don Ready Story, Post Grad Same weekend last year: Tropic Thunder ($25.8 million), The Dark Knight ($16.4 million), Star Wars: The Clone Wars ($14.6 million) Winner: 2008
When this Nazi-scalping World War II adventure has a bigger-than-expected opening, despite the obvious fact that its writer-director has never read a history book nor learned to spell, school budgets are decimated nationwide. Predicted opening weekend: $31 million Also opening: Nothing! Same weekend last year: Tropic Thunder ($16.3 million), The House Bunny ($14.5 million), Death Race ($12.6 million) Winner: 2008
In its last major weekend, summer 2009 notches a small victory by offering audiences three terrifying options: this 3-D Final Destination movie, a new Halloween sequel, and, scariest of all, the film in which Philip Seymour Hoffman appears sans skullcap. Predicted opening weekend: $32 million Also opening: The Boat That Rocked, H2 Same weekend last year: Tropic Thunder ($11.5 million), Babylon A.D. ($9.4 million), The Dark Knight ($8.6 million) Winner: 2009
Vulture’s 2009 Pre-Depression Summer-Movie Preview