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What to Expect From Jersey Shore’s Fourth Season: 17 Certainties and Predictions

Before each season of Jersey Shore starts, diehard fans and those who watch religiously but, they insist, ironically, know a good 60 to 80 percent of what will happen. Blame it on extended trailers, relentless paparazzi coverage during filming, and the simple inability of these eight knuckleheads not to repeat the same mistakes over and over. Using everything we know about season four of Jersey Shore, which takes the cast to Italy on a mission of self discovery, we’ve assembled a handy cheat sheet of what we know happened in Florence and what we think might have. There’s at least one thing, though, that we can all agree probably didn’t happen: That whole self-discovery thing.

Chances: 98 percent Evidence: This one would be 100 percent — Mike’s admitted to learning the lingo — if not for the all-but-certain chance that The Situation forgets he’s even in Italy and uses his go-to line, “What’s your exit?” at least once. Photo: Brian Prahl/ Splash News/????
Chances: 99.9 percent Evidence: To paraphrase Chekhov, the bidet mentioned in the first act has to get clogged in the second. Especially when it’s being used by eight people who consume nothing but pasta, vodka, and each other’s saliva, a potent mixture that has already proved too explosive for New Jersey’s plumbing. You can bet Florence’s ancient pipes won’t be able to handle it.​
Chances: 95 percent Evidence: Vinny didn’t just go to Florence to party and meet girls. He also wants to take in the city’s culture and history while exploring his Italian roots. At least, that sounds like something he’d say.​ Photo: PEDRO ARMESTRE/2008 AFP
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: You’ve got to be some kind of idiot to get into a fistfight with Ronnie, who’s basically an orange version of the Incredible Hulk, but that’s exactly what The Situation did. Results here.​ Photo: Sinky/Macca/Splash/????
Chances: 110 percent Evidence: While Sammi and Ronnie’s insufferable relationship is hardly mentioned in the trailer, ask yourself, what could make The Situation so crazy he would willingly get clobbered by Ronnie the Stegosaurus? In season’s past, at the brink of battle with Ron Ron, Mike has always backed off, out of respect for his face. This time, he goes all in, screaming at Ronnie about “relationships,” and you can pretty safely guess which one. Besides, all this reasoning is unnecessary: If Ronnie and Sammi are back together, which they allegedly are, there will not only be fighting, there will be fighting that borders on domestic abuse.
Chances: 60 percent Evidence: Move over, Deli Fresh; water’s getting a new partner in JWOWW’s late-night-snacking routine.
Chances: 85 percent Evidence: These kids had enough trouble working at a T-shirt stand and a gelato shop, where everything was prepared when they got to work. Their attempts to make pizza are going to be like Snooki at 4 a.m.: messy and wobbly with lots of tomato sauce in the hair.​
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: Driving in Italy looks confusing. And what’s confusing for most is downright dangerous for Snooki, as she proves on the streets of Florence by smashing into a cop car and sending two officers away on stretchers. Don’t worry, though; MTV turned the crash into this promo, which means it’s okay to laugh. Photo: Splash News/????
Chances: 0 percent Evidence: Ten Euros says they think Silvio Berlusconi is a brand of biscotti.
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: In the short time we’ve known her, the “blast in a glass” has worn a snakeskin dress, a Canadian wedding dress, and many unfortunate hats. So what’s next? How about some ass cheek? Photo: Prahl/Macca/Sinky Splash News/????
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: Sure, it’s called Dirty Italian and it probably has lots of diagrams of private parts, but seeing The Situation furrow his brow and study a book with actual words in it might be the biggest surprise of the season.​
Chances: 20 percent Evidence: If someone tells him what a Bunga Bunga party is, this immediately becomes 100 percent. Photo: Ian Spanier Photography/? Ian Spanier Photography 2011
Chances: 92 percent Evidence: As reliable as JWOWW’s boobs looking a cup size bigger each season, every trip to the Shore involved at least one argument about the apartment’s cleanliness, who’s responsible for it, and who isn’t carrying their weight. Reporting from the crew’s Italy apartment on their last day there, though, the Times seems to indicate that this won’t be an issue in Italy: “By the last day of filming the Florence rental was scattered with cigarette butts, empty wine and water bottles, dirty socks and used towels.”​
Chances: 75 percent Evidence: It’s the country’s traditional clubwear.
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: JWOWW lamented to the Times that it takes two weeks to get a manicure appointment in Italy. Yet another reason Florence will never be Seaside. Photo: Eddie Mejia / Splash News/????
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: The only person on TV who likes poop more than these guys is Bear Grylls. Photo: Jeff Daly/MTV/PictureGroup
Chances: 100 percent Evidence: Look to your left. 
What to Expect From Jersey Shore’s Fourth Season: 17 Certainties and Predictions