Vulture’s 2012 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and What to Say When They Do

The Artist War Horse Moneyball The Descendants The Tree of Life Midnight in Paris The Help Hugo Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Who Will Win: Back in December, pundits took a look at this year’s somewhat underwhelming Best Picture field and predicted an anything-can-happen free-for-all. Instead, The Artist went on to win every single award that has ever been invented, ever. Expect the movie to repeat come Sunday. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “That’s the first silent film to win Best Picture since the very first Oscar ceremony back in 1929, when Wings won ‘Most Outstanding Production.’”

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Viola Davis, The Help Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo Who Will Win: Meryl Streep has picked up a couple of not-insignificant wins this season, but Viola Davis has all the momentum. Besides, Meryl will almost certainly be back next year… and the year after that… and the year after that… What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Don’t feel too bad for Meryl: In a few months, she’s going to film the big-screen version of the hit play August: Osage County with Julia Roberts, and she’s a sure-bet Oscar nominee for it.” Photo: ?DreamWorks II Distribution Co., LLC. ?All Rights Reserved.

Jean Dujardin, The Artist Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy George Clooney, The Descendants Brad Pitt, Moneyball Demián Bichir, A Better Life Who Will Win: Though George Clooney should never be counted completely out (unlike Brad Pitt, once a comer in this category who seems to have stalled), Jean Dujardin won the SAG award, and those winners almost always repeat. It helps, too, that he appears to have done the “most” acting, in a category where several of his competitors give deceptively easy-looking, laid-back performances. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “The last non-native English speaker to win in this category? Roberto Benigni for 1997’s Life is Beautiful. Let’s hope this one doesn’t prove as regrettable.”

Christopher Plummer, Beginners Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn Nick Nolte, Warrior Jonah Hill, Moneyball Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, in the lock of the night. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “This was a pretty great year for Christopher Plummer: Not only did he win a zillion awards for Beginners, but he also appeared in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and lent his voice to Skyrim, that video game everyone you know is so obsessed with.” Photo: Andrew Tepper/2011 Focus Features

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids J.C. Chandor, Margin Call Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris Asgar Farhadi, A Separation Who Will Win: This is a complicated category, as nearly every nominee could lay legitimate claim to the prize. The Artist and Bridesmaids could surprise, but odds are that Midnight in Paris will triumph here just so that the movie can win something. Also, to make a bit of Oscar history, as Woody Allen will be the oldest winner ever in this category. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Don’t expect Woody to make a speech: He’s never showed up to claim any of his Oscars.”

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants John Logan, Hugo Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, Ides of March Peter Straughan and Bridget O’Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Who Will Win: Here comes the night’s consolation prize for The Descendants, which might have been the Oscar frontrunner in any other year, had it not been up against The Artist. Fortunately, in this category, it doesn’t even have to compete with that silent film! What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Hey, co-writer Jim Rash is the dean from Community, and he just won an Oscar! Do you think it’s awkward that Alexander Payne recently said Rash’s draft with Nat Faxon taught him what not to do with the story?”

Bullhead Footnote Monsieur Lazhar A Separation In Darkness Who Will Win: A Separation was this year’s foreign film darling, and though it doesn’t have the sweeping uplift that often carries a movie to a win in this category, it’s still the best bet. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Out of all the winning films tonight, A Separation has the most universal acclaim: It can boast the highest Rotten Tomatoes score at 99% fresh.”

Rango A Cat in Paris Puss in Boots Kung Fu Panda 2 Chico and Rita Who Will Win: Rango. The quirky western was well-respected, and none of the other nominees pose any threat at all. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Cars 2 is the first Pixar movie to go un-nominated in this category since it was introduced in 2001.” Photo: ?2011 Paramount Pictures. All Rights Reserved. Photo Credit: Industrial Light & Magic

Hell and Back Again If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory Pina Undefeated Who Will Win: Pina is a threat, but Paradise Lost 3 ought to triumph, thanks to its real-life headlines and the unexpected third-act catharsis of watching the West Memphis Three finally go free. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “There are two other movies about the West Memphis Three in the works: another documentary produced by Peter Jackson, and a narrative film that will star Reese Witherspoon and Colin Firth.”

The Artist Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Hugo Midnight in Paris War Horse Who Will Win: This is a tough, tough category, mainly because both The Artist and Hugo are so strong in the technical categories. In the end, though, we think the more colorful, and elaborate (and 3D-enabled) sets for Hugo will win out. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “How ironic. This competition boils down to one between a group of mostly French filmmakers who made a loving and elaborate recreation of Hollywood during the silent film era, and a group of mostly Hollywood filmmakers who made a loving and elaborate recreation of Paris during the silent film era.” Photo: Photo Credit: Jaap Buitendijk/? 2011 GK Films. All Rights Reserved.

The Artist The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo Hugo The Tree of Life War Horse Who Will Win: The smart money is on Tree of Life’s Emanuel Lubezki, who has swept pretty much every other award in this category this year and has also never won an Oscar before. But this is a category that could see a real upset, since The Artist and Hugo obviously have plenty of support, and War Horse was Spielberg’s best looking film in ages. But we’re going for Lubezki and Tree of Life as well; the Picture-and-Director-nominated Malick film likely has enough die-hard fans in the Academy to form a solid voting bloc, at least for this category. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “You know, some of the footage in Tree of Life was shot over thirty years ago, by other cinematographers – shouldn’t they be given tiny little Oscars or something?”

Anonymous The Artist Hugo Jane Eyre W./E. Who Will Win: The Artist’s Mark Bridges. All of these are worthy candidates (and if you hear “Hugo” announced here get ready for an interesting night), but the recreation of old Hollywood will be too much for the Academy to resist. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “It’s good for Mark Bridges to get this Oscar now, because he’s currently working on P.T. Anderson’s Scientology movie The Master and might mysteriously disappear before next year’s ceremony.”

Albert Nobbs Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 The Iron Lady Who Will Win: Hilariously, this is the first (and, of course, last) time any film in the Harry Potter series has been nominated in this category. We’re going to go for Deathly Hallows, even though Oscar does love itself some old age make-up and The Iron Lady has a real shot here.  What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Hilariously, this is the first (and, of course, last) time any film in the Harry Potter series has been nominated in this category.” Photo: Jaap Buitendijk/(C) 2011 WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC. HARRY POTTER PUBLISHING RIGHTS (C) J.K.R. HARRY POTTER CHARACTERS, NAMES AND RELATED INDICIA ARE TRADEMARKS OF AND (C) WARNER BROS. ENT. ?ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Hugo Moneyball Transformers: Dark of the Moon War Horse Who Will Win: Transformers has a lot of sound, but Hugo obviously has a lot of support in the technical categories. We’re calling it for Hugo. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “War Horse might have had a shot, if they’d had the good sense to mix down some of John Williams’s overbearing score.” Photo: Jaap Buitendijk/? 2010 GK Films. All Rights Reserved.

Drive The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo Hugo Transformers: Dark of the Moon War Horse Who Will Win: The sound categories often go hand in hand, but not always. Hugo seems the obvious choice here, but we’re gonna predict this one goes to War Horse and veteran sound designer Gary Rydstrom. (Also, a shame about the absence of the great Kevin O’Connell this year… could his twenty-first nomination have finally been the charm?) What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Gary Rydstrom’s an interesting fellow. Although he’s got seven Oscars for sound, he actually recently took a few years off from sound to write and direct films for Pixar.” [If Rydstrom wins: “I bet he’s feeling glad he came out of retirement now!” If Rydstrom loses: “Maybe he should go back to directing!”] Photo: Andrew Cooper, SMPSP/?DreamWorks II Distribution Co., LLC. ?All Rights Reserved.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Hugo Real Steel Rise of the Planet of the Apes Transformers: Dark of the Moon Who Will Win: That’s a lot of special effects there, Oscar. The big sci-fi movie of the year often takes this category, but with Harry Potter, Apes, and Transformers all splitting the popcorn vote and cancelling each other out (we’re pretending Real Steel never happened), Hugo, with its lovingly elaborate 3-D set-pieces, is probably the one to beat here. Apes could potentially score an upset, but it doesn’t quite seem to have the required level of support – it’s not nominated in any other categories. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “It’s a shame Tree of Life wasn’t nominated in this category. They brought the great Douglas Trumbull out of retirement, and he might have finally gotten that Oscar that Stanley Kubrick basically took from him back when 2001: A Space Odyssey won.”

The Artist The Descendants The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo Hugo Moneyball Who Will Win: This is, famously, the technical category that often shadows the Best Picture winner, so we’re going for The Artist, which was actually co-edited by its director Michel Hazanavicius, here. If Hugo wins, get excited. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Michel Hazanavicius is up for editing, writing, and directing tonight. If he wins all three categories, in one night he will have scored more Oscars than Alfred Hitchcock ever did in his entire career.” (At this point, feel free to insert a joke about killing yourself.)

The Adventures of Tintin The Artist Hugo Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy War Horse Who Will Win: The Artist, with its acres of music doing double duty in the silent genre, seems like a lock here – especially since perennial juggernaut John Williams will likely split his votes. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Somebody buy Kim Novak a drink. She’s gonna need it.”

“Man or Muppet,” The Muppets “Real in Rio,” Rio Who Will Win: What to say about a two-movie race? We’re going for The Muppets not just because we want it to win, but because people seemed to like it a lot more than they did Rio. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Both of these songs have their respective movies’ titles in their names. If only War Horse had a song called ‘Where is My War Horse?’ it would have cleaned up in this category.” Photo: Photo Credit: Andrew Macpherson/?? The Muppets Studio, LLC

Dimanche / Sunday The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore La Luna A Morning Stroll Wild Life Who Will Win: “Flying Books” is a real charmer, but we’re going to go for “La Luna,” because we’re worried about a trans-galactic space-time collapse if an Oscar night passes without Pixar winning something. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Interesting. So many of the animated shorts were essentially wordless. It’s like The Artist has some kind of silent-movie coattails.” Photo: Pixar/?Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Pentecost Raju The Shore Time Freak Tuba Atlantic Who Will Win: Although there are a couple of impressively concise films here, this category is usually susceptible to star power and length, so we’re going to go for the lengthy and high-profile The Shore, which was directed by two-time Oscar nominee Terry George (Hotel Rwanda) and stars the great Ciaran Hinds. It’s also quite touching and funny, which always helps. What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “This seems like a rather asymmetrical category. The longest film is 31 minutes, the shortest 11. With that kind of range of running time, the films might as well be different media.”

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement God is the Bigger Elvis Incident in New Baghdad Saving Face The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Who Will Win: This category, much like its feature doc cousin, sometimes comes down to which movie’s heart bleeds the strongest, and there’s fierce competition this year – from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, to survivors of Pakistani acid attacks, to atrocities in Iraq. We’re going to go with The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, mainly because it’s a lovely, hopeful film and because director Lucy Walker, who was nominated in the feature category last year for Waste Land, seems like she’s due for a statuette.  What to Say When the Winner is Announced: “Ohh, let’s hope [insert name of winner] has a crazy scorned producer who will Kanye the director this year, too!”