Early Alert: Will This Be Your Favorite Show’s Last Season?

Entering Season: Four Reasons to worry: The Good Wife has a profile exactly the opposite of the typical CBS drama: Everybody talks about it, but the size of its audience doesn’t match up to its buzz. And the audience that does watch skews older, even by CBS standards. During the season that just ended, Wife averaged 11.8 million viewers, which is higher than any scripted show on NBC or Fox — but just 3.2 million of that audience was in the advertiser-friendly demo of adults under 50, which ties it with Unforgettable and CSI: Miami. (All ratings cited in this story include both same-day viewing and up to seven days of DVR viewing.) The Eye canceled the latter two shows, and with Good Wife currently scheduled to compete with ABC buzz magnet Revenge come the fall, there’s no reason to expect the young adult numbers for Good Wife to go up next season. What’s more, while other nets would kill for a show that reaches nearly 12 million viewers each week, more than a dozen other CBS shows had even bigger total viewer averages last season (including the now-dead Unforgettable … and Rob). Another reason to start praying: By the end of next season, Wife will have also produced 90 episodes, more than enough for syndication. Once that threshold is achieved, a major incentive for CBS to keep the show alive will disappear. If CBS’s new dramas pop with audiences, Good Wife will almost certainly be on the bubble come spring. Reasons for hope: Despite its older skew and medium-for-CBS audience level, CBS has been able to mine decent ad dollars for the show because it also happens to reach a very upscale, smart audience. And as much as CBS pretends not to care about “buzz,” it secretly hates the fact that the lamestream media would sooner devote 1,000 words to a Canadian import airing on the CW watched by barely 500,000 people than write even a sentence about, say, Criminal Minds. The endless (and deserved) raves for Good Wife give Eye execs a nice ego boost, as do the Emmy nominations and other kudos the show racks up. If CBS’s new dramas don’t catch on, the steady security of Good Wife will make it all the more appealing next May. Your Anxiety Level: 4. Any show with demo ratings this small has to be considered a candidate for cancellation, but as long as Good Wife continues to be must-see TV for critics and its loyal core audience, CBS is likely to keep it around. Photo: DAVID M. RUSSELL/?2011 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Entering Season: Four Reasons to worry: Pretty much endless. Barely renewed for season four with a paltry thirteen-episode order, Community is scheduled to shift to the vast programming wasteland known as Fridays in the fall. It is also losing its creative heart in Dan Harmon, potentially alienating the show’s core audience. NBC co-owns Community (with Sony), and thus had financial incentives to keep the show alive for syndication revenue, but those incentives diminish greatly after season four, meaning the show will live or die based on its Friday ratings. Reasons for hope: Well, the bar has been set pretty low on Fridays. If the show can somehow match its Thursday ratings on Friday, NBC will have a relative hit on its hands. Meanwhile, new showrunners David Guarascio and Moses Port are likely to be more willing to work with NBC on … well, on just about everything. Perhaps the goodwill will be enough to prompt the network to forget about the Friday idea and find a way to air the show on an earlier night of the week. Your Anxiety Level: 9. Why stop worrying now? You’ve gotten so good at it over the years. Photo: Adam Rose/? NBC Universal, Inc.

Entering season: Eight Reasons to worry: The show’s cast is only signed on through this coming season. If CBS and producer 20th Century Fox TV want to keep HIMYM going beyond then, they’ll likely have to give the stars major raises, thus increasing the show’s production costs (and limiting profit). That said, the show does well enough on both CBS and in syndication that reaching a deal with most of the actors probably wouldn’t be impossible. A wild card, however, could be Jason Segel: He’s got a major career going as a movie writer and actor. He said he didn’t want to do another Muppets movie because he didn’t want to repeat himself; it’s not hard to imagine that he’s about had his creative fill of playing Marshall on HIMYM. There’s also the matter of just how many stories the show’s writers have left in them: While showrunners Carter Bays and Craig Thomas have told us they can easily see doing a season nine, there’s also an argument to be made that the show is ready to come to its natural conclusion. Reasons for hope: HIMYM had one of its best ratings seasons ever during the past year. CBS very much wants to expand to eight comedies, and doing so will be easier if HIMYM sticks around for a ninth. And while we have no idea when producers plan to reveal how Mom gets met, or when Barney marries his eventual bride, doing either or both could actually serve to pump new life into the show rather than signal an end. Your Anxiety Level: 2. Producers have been pushing CBS to give them a decision one way or another about a ninth season, and we suspect the Eye will cooperate. But even if this is the show’s last go-round, the early notice would mean that fans are likely to get a satisfying ending. Well, unless it turns out the Mom’s in jail for killing Rosie Larsen. Photo: RON P. JAFFE/?2011 CBS BROADCASTING INC. All Rights Reserved

Entering season: Three Reasons to worry: Having spent all of its life as part of ABC’s successful Wednesday-night lineup (and most of that time behind the network’s No. 1 show, Modern Family), Happy is currently slated to relocate to Tuesday nights at 9 p.m. Its new lead-in? The fading Dancing With the Stars, which has exactly 182 viewers under the age of 60, and probably shares about six of them with Happy. The last time ABC so badly mismatched two shows was when it decided Last Man Standing would be a good companion for Cougar Town. (We all know how that turned out.) But that’s not the only bad thing about the scheduling: Our favorite Chicagoans will now be competing against the similarly hip New Girl and NBC’s sure-to-be-hyped-to-death Matthew Perry vehicle Go On. While we have faith that Happy has a solid, devoted base of rabid fans willing to follow it to a new night, we’re not sure ABC will do all that needs to be done to promote said relocation. After all, despite their many public proclamations of love for the show, ABC spent precious little resources on Happy when it was on Wednesday. (Its excuse? Adjacency to Modern Family is hype enough.) This fall, you can bet that after promoting its new shows, ABC will spend whatever marketing resources it has left over to getting the word out about Revenge’s shift to Sundays. We’d like to think ABC will keep its expectations reasonable, but there’s a good chance Happy could get walloped on Tuesdays, and that worries us. Reasons for hope: We never believed ABC chief Paul Lee when he said he loved Cougar Town, but his passion for Happy seems more convincing. There are also many industry insiders who think ABC will blink and swap DWTS with its Happy/Don’t Trust the B— hour, allowing Happy to take on the dissimilar (and lower-rated) Raising Hope at 8 p.m. While leading off a night can be tough, expectations are generally lower. And then there’s this: ABC co-owns Happy with Sony Pictures Television, the studio behind Community. Sony is known for doing whatever it takes to get its shows to syndication, and in the wake of The Big Bang Theory’s monstrous off-network success on TBS and on local stations, it’s a good bet Happy would do well in syndication. If nothing else, long-term financial gain could ensure ABC does whatever it takes to get the show through at least two more seasons. Your Anxiety Level: 3. We’re probably just overthinking this. Happy is gonna be just fine, right? RIGHT? Photo: Michael Ansell/? 2011 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Entering Season: Nineteen Reasons to worry: Viewership for the Tyra Banks competition series has been falling for years, but this spring, ratings collapsed. Here’s how bad it was: Even counting folks who caught up via DVR, ANTM averaged under one million adult viewers under 50, putting it behind canceled CW series Ringer and Secret Circle. There’s also the fact that while reality shows tend to be less expensive than comedies or dramas, their budgets get bulkier as they age. The CW recently announced that pretty much everyone on camera not named Tyra is exiting the show, likely a sign that producers want to save money by using less expensive new talent (as well as a last-ditch effort to spark new excitement in the concept).  Reasons for hope: It’s pretty easy for reality shows to reboot, and it’s clear from the already announced departures that the CW wants to shake up ANTM. Viewers could come back if one of the new judges turns out to be really good, and a spectacular group of contestants could likewise do the trick. Okay, we’re reaching here. Your Anxiety Level: 9. The CW desperately needs to find new hits and spending money on a show with little room for growth doesn’t make any sense. Photo: Chris Frawley/?2012 The CW Network, LLC. All Rights Reserved

Entering Season: Three   Reasons to worry: Having aired in protected slots behind either Glee or New Girl for most of its first two years, the wonderfully warm and quirky family comedy from Greg Garcia has never had to be a self-starter. But come fall, Hope will be expected to serve as the opening act for Fox’s new four-comedy Tuesday lineup. We’re particularly worried about its chances of doing well at 8 p.m. because when the network tried that out this spring, the results weren’t great. They weren’t awful, mind you, and Fox execs think that given the fact that TV viewership in the eight o’clock hour takes a big hit after Daylight Savings Time, Hope actually did pretty well. But our biggest worry is that this quiet charmer won’t be able to make a lot of noise in its new home and might get lost in the shuffle. Reasons to hope: The show remains a favorite of executives at the network, where developing a live-action family comedy to fill the gap left by Malcolm in the Middle has long been a goal. Fox has stuck with Hope this long, so if the show can manage to not completely dive in the ratings, the network should be patient, if only to help sister studio 20th Century Fox TV get enough episodes for syndication. Who knows: It might even carve out a family niche for Fox similar to the one ABC’s The Middle has established on Wednesdays. Your Anxiety Level: 5. We’re nervous, but not yet scared.

Entering Season: 525. Okay, no, actually No. 10. Reasons to worry: So, yeah, if we’re being honest, we’re not technically “worried” about Two and a Half Men meeting its maker; that implies a level of investment we don’t have — though millions of others do. That said, there are lots of paths to cancellation for Men. The most likely is that everyone involved just gets tired of the whole enterprise, particularly newest star Ashton Kutcher, who may decide he’s ready to try to become a movie star again. (Hey, maybe that Steve Jobs biopic will be good! His face will be its natural color in it, right?) But there are also signs that viewers have grown a bit weary of the show as well: After generating massive tune-in with its first post–Charlie Sheen half-hours last fall (nearly 30 million watched the season premiere), Men steadily shed viewers as the season went on. By April, it hit a season low of just 10.5 million (and averaged around 11.5 million for most of May). Sure, even at reduced levels, the show still doubles the tune-in for most of NBC’s comedies, but it’s also very expensive to produce, thanks to big paydays for all involved. If CBS’s new comedies do well, and 2 Broke Girls survives its move to 9 p.m. Mondays, Men may seem a bit more disposable a year from now. Reasons to hope: Perhaps sensing some softness in its ratings, CBS smartly decided to shift Men to 8:30 p.m. Thursdays, pairing it with the red-hot Big Bang Theory. Both shows have wide audience appeal, reaching viewers of all ages and socioeconomic groups. BBT could well prove to be Nielsen Viagra for Men, giving the Eye a rock-solid 8 to 9 p.m. hour on Thursdays. If this happens, we will look quite silly for even worrying about the fate of Men. Your Anxiety Level: 3. It’s absolutely possible this could be the last season for Men, but even if it is, the show will live on in syndication for eternity. #Winning. Photo: MICHAEL YARISH/????2011 Warner Bros. Television. All Rights Reserved.

Entering Season: Five Reasons to worry: When stacked up against ABC’s roster of returning one-hour dramas, Castle’s 18 to 49 ratings rank at the bottom of the list, besting only Shonda Rhimes’s new series Scandal and the buzz-free Body of Proof. (And that’s despite having Dancing With the Stars as a lead-in.) Unlike CBS, ABC isn’t happy unless it’s delivering the adults-under-50 crowd that advertisers covet. Possibly even more troubling for the network: What happens now that Castle and Beckett have slept together, ending four seasons of “will they or won’t they” teasing? Caskett shippers wept tears of victory when the two got together in this season’s finale, but will they soon face the Moonlighting curse? Reasons to hope: Old fans or not, Castle’s overall viewership has climbed with each new season — a feat few other shows can claim. Season four was its most-watched yet with an average 12.2 million viewers. It’s also the only crime procedural on the network that works, and with 81 episodes in the can, that translates into big syndication dollars for ABC sib ABC Studios. Your anxiety level: 3. Fortunately for Castle, DWTS airs twice a season. And ABC has planned plenty of bigger risks this fall, with several new shows in tricky time slots (looking at you, Last Resort and Nashville). The just-okay numbers for Castle could look much better if and when one of the newbies fails. Photo: Adam Taylor/? 2011 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Entering Season: Eight Reasons to worry: Terra Nova. Alcatraz. House. What do all three Fox shows have in common? Yes, they’ve all been canceled, but they also all delivered more 18-to-49 eyeballs than Bones. Sure, the show was bludgeoned in the spring when it moved from Thursdays to Mondays, thus facing off against Dancing with the Stars and The Voice. But that story won’t be changing now that NBC has decided to double-pump The Voice, giving it a fall run too. The fact that viewers didn’t even bother with the Bones spinoff The Finder may mean a tough decision ahead for the older, increasingly expensive drama. Reasons to hope: Fox really needs some one-hour dramas to perform, and seeing as how executives have already relegated the second season of Touch to Fridays (where it will lead into the final season of Fringe) and canceled the rest, Bones may get a reprieve unless fans suddenly decide they don’t want to watch Bones and Booth raising a baby. Plus, given how far House had fallen in its final season, Bones won’t have to do all that great to improve upon Fox’s Monday performance this past season. Your anxiety level: 5. Fox is only trying out one new drama this fall, The Mob Doctor, which is following Bones. Assuming it holds steady, the fate of Bones may rest on how the network’s drama development for the 2013–14 season turns out.

Entering Season: Nine Reasons to worry: When it came time to decide which of the CSI spinoffs CBS would keep alive for another season, network entertainment prez Nina Tassler told reporters it was “a jump ball.” CSI: Miami, she explained, drew more 18 to 49 viewers than CSI: NY but happened to air Sundays at 10 p.m., and the network needed that slot for The Mentalist, which would in turn free up a Thursday slot for new drama Elementary — and thus, Miami was sacrificed. Because so much of what CBS does works for them, its high success rate occasionally forces the network to kill off even a solid performer in order to try something new. CSI: NY was spared, but it’s not exactly safe. Reasons to hope: CBS TV Studios makes a lot of money syndicating crime procedurals such as CSI, NCIS, and Criminal Minds. The only reason to end another cash cow would be if CBS scored a big new hit this fall. CSI: NY has the added benefit of airing on Fridays, where there’s even less pressure to deliver bigger audiences and where it’s not likely to be shoved out for a popular new show. Your anxiety level: 5. If even one of CBS’s new dramas work — Elementary, Vegas, or Made in Jersey – that’s one more time slot that will need to be reconsidered when the next crop of drama pilots comes in next spring. Photo: Cliff Lipson/????2011 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Entering Season: Nine Reasons for worry: Where to begin? The show hasn’t truly found a replacement for Steve Carell’s Michael Scott, and without him, this comedy has struggled mightily to come off as something other than just a collection of complacent oddballs whose workday is only marginally more engrossing than your own. Some 7.6 million viewers were curious enough to tune in to see the post–Michael Scott Dunder Mifflin, but by the end of the season that number was under 5 million (not counting DVR viewership). Then there’s the matter of the show’s talented cast: writer-actress Mindy Kaling is off to Fox to star in her own comedy, while Rainn Wilson’s Dwight Schrute may be spun off into his own series (possibly set on the Schrute beet farm) in the middle of next season. Looking further ahead, Jon Krasinski and Ed Helms have busy, burgeoning film careers; convincing them to stay beyond this new season seems a long shot. We love the remaining supporting characters on The Office, but we’re not sure the show can sustain itself on these lower-level players.             Reasons to hope: Greg Daniels, who adapted the show for U.S. audiences, is working on a creative reboot of the show, according to Deadline. The Office remains NBC’s biggest 18 to 49 draw outside ofThe Voice and summer reality show America’s Got Talent. It’s also the network’s only Thursday-night anchor, and it’s been used to prop up any number of comedies over the years, including still-standing Parks and Recreation, Community, Up All Night, and Whitney. Unless NBC suddenly strikes comedy gold — and it’s trying, with a slew of newcomers — The Office may remain a rock for NBC for a while longer. Your anxiety level: 6. NBC needs The Office to stick around on Thursdays because there is literally nothing else right now. But if the Dwight spinoff actually gets ordered, and then manages to capture viewer interest, the flagship — and its antsy cast — may finally be able to retire. Photo: NBC/2012 NBCUniversal Media, LLC

Entering Season: Four Reasons for worry: Jason Katims’s closely observed family drama may be a favorite among critics but few viewers have bonded with it. A perennial bubble show, it continues to steadily lose viewers. Last season dipped to an average 5.2 million, low even for NBC, and serialized dramas are rarely able to reverse the trend. Parenthood also doesn’t have much working in its favor when it comes to scoring a lucrative syndication deal: With only 53 episodes filmed and a smallish order for fifteen more next season, it doesn’t seem like NBC is committed to getting to the roughly 90 episodes needed for a rich afterlife in cable. It’s probably time to start preparing for good-bye. Reasons for hope: Tuesdays at 10 p.m. is still a junky time slot, with no real breakout hits. And moves made by NBC’s rivals are unlikely to change that: Parenthood will now be going up against a weakening Private Practice and CBS newcomer Vegas, a gritty period drama and the tonal opposite of Parenthood. And while Parenthood’s total viewership is puny, the drama’s 18-to-49 rating (a 2.6) is robust by the network’s standards, well above Law & Order: SVU, Grimm, and all comedies outside of The Office. Your anxiety level: 7. Either NBC’s new shows tank spectacularly, making Parenthood’s small-but-devoted fans look really good, or the show will have to miraculously attract new viewers after three seasons. And since we really can’t see Katims pulling a Marc Cherry and sending an airplane to crash into one of the Bravermans … Photo: Harper Smith/? NBCUniversal, Inc.

Entering Season: Six Reasons for worry: To make room for Shonda Rhimes’s latest, Scandal, ABC moved her Private Practice out of its plum post–Grey’s Anatomy slot over to Tuesdays at 10 p.m., where it did okay but not great after Dancing With the Stars’ results show. ABC only ordered thirteen new episodes for next season, meaning the medical sudser will have to prove it can sustain without the benefit of a powerhouse lead-in (it will air after Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 this fall) or get to wrapping up those loose threads. Reasons for hope: In the demo that matters, Private Practice still beats the 18-to-49 performance of one-hour dramas Revenge, Scandal, Castle, and the Bachelor franchise. And for a show in its fifth season, a 3.0 18-to-49 rating at 10 p.m. isn’t too bad. Also, as we’ve noted, ABC may yet decide to keep the DWTS results show at 9 p.m., giving PP a much better shot at survival. Your anxiety level: 8. Private Practice is still an older, and therefore increasingly expensive, show. But more damning is that Rhimes has also got two other series that ABC is probably more interested in saving going forward (after eight seasons, Grey’s is still the No. 1 drama among 18-to-49-year-olds, and Scandal has shaped up to be a buzzy, growing new hit). Photo: Richard Cartwright/? 2011 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.