You may be doing a dry January, but I assure you Hollywood isn’t. Sunday brings the Golden Globes, awards season’s tipsiest ceremony, a night so crazy that they hand out trophies for film and TV. While they’re a pivotal step in the Oscars race, the Globes are also good for a few completely unpredictable choices each year … which is of course what makes them so fun to try to predict. Below, you’ll find Nate Jones (movies) and Jen Chaney (TV) make their best guesses at who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will pile their celestial honors upon this year.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody both decided that running in the more prestigious Globes category was worth the risk, and both were rewarded with prime nominations. A Star Is Born seems an easy choice here, as it’s got everything the Globes usually go for — an actor reinventing himself as a director, a singer reinventing herself as an actress, heck, there’s even a musical element. The Globes leaving Sam Elliott off the Supporting Actor ballot could suggest that the HFPA is slightly cooler on ASIB than everyone assumes, but I think Bradley Cooper’s film has the star power to pull through.
Should win: A Star Is Born
Will win: A Star Is Born
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
This race looks like it will come down to Cooper versus Malek, who give two very different performances as two very different rock stars. (Though what I wouldn’t give to hear Jackson Maine sing “Fat Bottomed Girls” …) Each has been nominated twice before at the Globes without a win, and while I still think Cooper is the Oscar front-runner, a win for Rami Malek’s false teeth just feels like the kind of crazy little thing the Golden Globes would do.
Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
The Globes gave Gaga a trophy back when she was just one of Ryan Murphy’s repertory players, and I don’t think they’ll be able to resist the temptation to do so again now that she’s headlining a major Oscar contender.
Should win: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Will win: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
The Globes fell absolutely head over heels for both Green Book and Vice, giving them basically every nomination they were eligible for, and a few I swear they weren’t. (Did Sam Rockwell really spend two hours fine-tuning his SNL reel, or did I just hallucinate it?) Each is among the more polarizing of this year’s awards field, and I’m looking forward to seeing Film Twitter going insane with rage when one of them inevitably takes home the win here. I think the HFPA will ultimately ride with Green Book, whose nominations in Director and Screenplay felt even more out-of-nowhere than Vice’s did. They could also avoid the whole mess by giving this to The Favourite, which wouldn’t piss anyone off. But where’s the fun in that?
Should win: The Favourite
Will win: Green Book
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Another Vice–Green Book face-off, and what a pair of faces they are! In one corner you have Viggo Mortensen, jaw agape, preparing to ingest an entire pizza pie; in the other, you have Christian Bale, snarling his way through prosthetics that make him look like a 60-year-old man from Wyoming. In a battle of two very big performances, I think the HFPA will likely go for the most striking transformation, and that’s Bale.
Should win: Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
Will win: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
In the musical/comedy category, a tie goes to the actual musical. Blunt it is.
Should win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Will win: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
The Globes neglected to honor Ali the year he took home the Oscar for Moonlight, going instead with Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s psychotic turn in Nocturnal Animals. Making it up to him this year for a movie Globes voters loved seems like a no-brainer.
Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
If you figure that the Favourite actresses will split their vote, and First Man isn’t winning anything, this one comes down to Adams versus King, both of whom are also competing against each other in Best Actress in a Limited Series. Adams is close to a shoe-in for Sharp Objects there, and while I could see voters spreading the wealth around, I think their love for the actress, and Vice, will power her to a win here, too.
Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Will win: Amy Adams, Vice
Best Director, Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Cuarón has been vacuuming up Best Director honors all season long, and with Roma ineligible in Best Drama, the incentive to honor him here is even stronger.
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
If Olivia Colman doesn’t take home Best Actress in a Comedy, Screenplay seems a likely spot to reward The Favourite’s barbed wit. But keep an eye out here for Vice, the 2018 screenplay that certainly has the most writing.
Should win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Will win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Best Original Song, Motion Picture
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
The other day I found myself singing, “In the show-how, show-how-er / in the shawa-shawa-shower.” Anyway, it’s gonna be “Shallow.”
Should win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Will win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Poppins feels like it’s lost a bit of momentum recently, which could provide an opportunity for First Man to eke out a win here. But you won’t catch me betting against a musical in Best Score.
Should win: I’m writing in Nicholas Britell, whose Beale Street score somehow missed the cut at the Globes.
Will win: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Motion Picture, Animated
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Pixar has only gone home empty-handed in the Globes’ animation category once, in 2011, when Cars 2 lost to Adventures of Tintin. I think this is the year another of the studio’s sequels loses to another groundbreaking comics adaptation.
Should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language
Never Look Away
In some precursors, voters have chosen to treat Best Foreign-Language Film as a sort of runner-up award, giving it to Paweł Pawlikowski’s black-and-white romance Cold War after rewarding Roma higher up the ballot. But Cold War didn’t make it in at the Globes, and given the ceremony’s relative lack of craft categories for Alfonso Cuarón’s film to compete in, I don’t see anything standing in Roma’s way here.
Should win: Roma
Will win: Roma
Best Television Series, Drama
In most of its TV categories, especially the big ones, Golden Globe voters tend to lock into the newest, buzziest shows. That’s why, even though The Americans deserves to win in this category, it won’t. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has never nominated it before, so its inclusion counts as the group’s way of making up for that error. But the FX spy series may seem too much like “old news” to actually win.
All four of the other nominees are coming off of their first seasons, but I think the choice will come down to two: Killing Eve, the British spy thriller that happens to stars Globes co-host Sandra Oh, or Homecoming, the Amazon psychological thriller that happens to star Julia Roberts in her television-series debut. Yes, that’s the same Julia Roberts who has nine Golden Globe nominations to her credit and three wins for her film work. The HFPA kinda likes her, and I suspect its members may appreciate Homecoming’s ’70s conspiracy vibe enough to give it the edge.
Should win: The Americans
Will win: Homecoming
Best Television Series, Comedy
The Good Place
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
The last time the Golden Globes gave the best comedy award to the same series two years in a row was in 2010 and 2011, when Glee scooped up back-to-back wins. The rarity of consecutive victories doesn’t rule out the possibility that the Globe will once again go to The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, last year’s victor. But I think that makes it less likely.
As for which one out of the other four nominees has the best chance, honestly, this is pure guesswork. As much as the HFPA loves Jim Carrey, I’m not sure the dark and quirky Kidding will win over enough voters. On the dark and quirky front, I suspect Barry has a better chance of winning. Meanwhile, The Kominsky Method has a couple of things that work in its favor: celebrated Hollywood veterans (Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin) as its stars and the fact that if it is announced as the winner, 70 percent of viewers will go, “What the hell is The Kominsky Method?” Only at the Golden Globes is that an advantage, one that I refer to as the Mozart in the Jungle Rule.
And yet, something — God? A demon who looks like Ted Danson? — is telling me that The Good Place is going to win this thing. The series isn’t new, but it’s taken a while for it to develop a fervent following, so it still has some fresh shine on it. Plus, the Golden Globes has been kind to another Mike Schur-produced series, Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Also, if The Good Place wins, Twitter will explode. I realize social-media response has nothing to do with how awards should be decided, but this is the Golden Globes and normal standards simply don’t apply here.
Should win: Barry or The Good Place
Will win: The Good Place
Best Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Escape at Dannemora
A Very English Scandal
HBO has won in this category more than any other network, which seemingly gives Sharp Objects an advantage. The Assassination of Gianni Versace won the Emmy for Outstanding Limited Series, which seemingly gives that entry an advantage. (The Emmys and the Globes don’t always align in this category, but they frequently do.) Escape at Dannemora may be top of mind since it just finished its run, plus it boasts movie-star talent in front of and behind the camera, both advantages as well. Still, I am betting on A Very English Scandal, the BBC mini-series about the relationship between MP Jeremy Thorpe (Hugh Grant) and his persistent ex-lover (Ben Whishaw), to potentially sway the crucial U.K.-based and European bloc of members of the HFPA.
Should win: Sharp Objects
Will win: A Very English Scandal
Best Actor in a Television Series, Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Billy Porter, Pose
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
The consensus among Gold Derby’s Golden Globe predictors, including myself, is that this will either go to James, who’s had a breakout year thanks to his performances in both Homecoming and If Beale Street Could Talk, or Matthew Rhys, who won the Emmy in this category for his superb portrayal of Philip Jennings on The Americans. (I’ll also say it’s possible that Billy Porter, who infused Pose with so much spirit and pathos, could pull off an upset.) While the Globes usually trend toward whatever’s new, sometimes they give a trophy to an actor who’s clearly long overdue, much like they did with Jon Hamm in 2015. I guess what I’m saying is that Matthew Rhys will be this year’s Jon Hamm.
Should win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Will win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Like her Americans co-star, does Keri Russell also deserve a long-overdue Globe? Yes. Will she get one? Mmmm, not sure. I don’t see Moss winning again or Balfe winning for a first time. Like the Best Drama category, I think this comes down to Killing Eve and Oh versus Homecoming and Roberts. Both women give terrific, award-worthy performances. But it’s harder for me to imagine the HFPA overlooking Roberts.
Should win: Keri Russell, The Americans
Will win: Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Best Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
If Michael Douglas were not in the mix, I’d say the trophy here would either go to Jim Carrey, a favorite of the HFPA, or Bill Hader, who already won the Emmy for Barry. But Douglas, a 12-time Globes nominee, five-time winner, and previous recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award is in the mix, and my best guess is that voters will lean his way.
Should win: Bill Hader, Barry
Will win: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Best Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
Rachel Brosnahan, last year’s winner, is fantastic in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. But, unlike at the Emmys, there are rarely back-to-back wins in this category. (Fun fact: Julia Louis-Dreyfus has been nominated five times for Veep but has never won — not even once!) For that reason, I doubt Brosnahan will win. Instead, I’m looking at either Alison Brie, who goes from big to subtle and funny to dramatic in GLOW, or Kristen Bell, who strikes me as a strong contender, especially if the voters opt not to reward The Good Place for Best Comedy.
Should win: Honestly, it’s a three-way tie between Brosnahan, Bell, and Brie.
Will win: Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Brühl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Darren Criss’s performance as Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace was a breakout moment for the actor. It won him an Emmy, and there’s a good chance it could win him a Golden Globe, too. But he faces some tough competition, particularly from Hugh Grant, who does some of the best work of his career as the smug, duplicitous Jeremy Thorpe in A Very English Scandal. I’m betting that the HFPA will find Grant too hard to resist.
Should win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Will win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Wow, is this a competitive category. As strong as all the contenders are, though, I think it will come down to three nominees: the fantastic Regina King in Seven Seconds; Patricia Arquette, who physically transforms into Tilly Mitchell in Escape at Dannemora; and Amy Adams, whose damaged Camille dominates Sharp Objects. All three of these women have been nominated at the Globes before, but Adams has the most nods to her credit — counting her two this year for Sharp Objects and Vice, she has nine — as well as two wins. In other words, the HFPA likes her, and with a selection committee this small (there are roughly 90 members of the Foreign Press Association), a track record of being liked matters.
Should win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Will win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Best Supporting Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Édgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
This is a tough call. Both Winkler and Arkin are industry veterans — a potential plus with the HFPA. A wave of support for The Assassination of Gianni Versace could push Ramírez into the winner’s column, and let’s not overlook Kieran Culkin, the best smarmy entitled richie on TV last year. But I keep getting stuck on Ben Whishaw, who is heartbreaking and maddening in equal measure in A Very English Scandal. I think that mini-series could wind up doing a mini-version of the Limited Series sweep Big Little Lies pulled off last year.
Should win: Ben Whishaw or Henry Winkler
Will win: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Best Supporting Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penélope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
While all the women in this category are deserving, the two front-runners seem to be Alex Borstein, nominated for Mrs. Maisel for the first time this year, and Patricia Clarkson, the passive-aggressive mommie worstest in Sharp Objects. I can imagine either of these ladies winning, so it’s ultimately going to come down to whether the HFPA love for Mrs. Maisel is stronger than its love for Sharp Objects. (I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an upset, perhaps by Cruz.) But my hypothesis is that Clarkson will prevail.
Should win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Will win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Check out our complete Golden Globes 2019 winners list.