predictions

What Will Win and What Should Win at the 2020 Emmys

Get ready for the Emmy Awards, a.k.a. the Watchmen Awards. Photo: HBO

Even though this is 2020, the year of postponements and cancellations, the 2020 Primetime Emmy Awards will go on as usual this Sunday night. The ceremony, to be broadcast on ABC, will take place in a virtual format, which should add an extra “What’s going to happen?” suspense to the evening. But honestly, some of the categories are so competitive the Emmys don’t need the help.

After consulting a Magic 8-Ball and engaging in a couple of coin tosses, I have come up with this list of predicted Emmy winners (hint: Watchmen, Watchmen) and nominees that I’d like to see triumph come Sunday night (again: Watchmen, Watchmen).

Outstanding Drama Series

Better Call Saul (AMC)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)
Ozark  (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)

Succession and Ozark each earned 18 nominations this year, which indicates there’s a lot of love in the Television Academy for both series. The Outstanding Drama award could go to either of them; both had really strong seasons. A win for The Crown, which has never won the Emmy in this category, isn’t out of the realm, either. The Mandalorian has already won several technical Emmys, but my gut tells me this prize is going to Succession.

Will win: Succession (or maybe Ozark)

Should win: Succession. Season two firmly established the show as a cultural phenomenon and ended with a hell of a finale.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Dead to Me (Netflix)
The Good Place (NBC)
Insecure (HBO)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
The Kominsky Method  (Netflix)
Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

The prevailing wisdom among the experts at Gold Derby, including myself, is that Schitt’s Creek will win. The show has earned a lot of fans over its six seasons, and this is the last opportunity to reward its long-beloved stars as well as its admirable climb from niche Pop TV show to genuine hit (thanks, Netflix). Could things go a different way? Sure. Emmy voters love The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and it’s possible they could give it a second Best Comedy Emmy. (It won two years ago.) Some other nominees are long overdue for an Emmy — like Insecure, which delivered a great, insightful season this year, and another series that recently ended, the fantastic The Good Place. If a shocking upset happens in this category, it could come via What We Do in the Shadows, which upped its comedy game significantly in season two. That said, I’m sticking with my first guess.

Will win: Schitt’s Creek

Should win: Insecure or The Good Place

Outstanding Limited Series

Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Mrs. America (Hulu)
Unbelievable (Netflix)
Unorthodox (Netflix)
Watchmen (HBO)

All these shows are outstanding, but there’s no way Watchmen doesn’t win here. It’s the most nominated series this year, with 26 nods, and it was superbly executed on every technical and creative level. Given the racial and social unrest that has erupted in recent months, its subject matter could not be more relevant. This is also the only nominated series that taught (some) viewers about a significant and forgotten piece of history: the Tulsa massacre and the destruction of Black Wall Street. So in conclusion, Watchmen.

Will win: Watchmen

Should win: Watchmen

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
Late Night With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Yeah, it’s become a bit repetitive to see Last Week Tonight win in this category every single year. There’s a chance Trevor Noah’s Daily Show will break the streak, but honestly, I expect the voters to check the John Oliver box yet again. I’m kinda fine with that, especially since an Emmy win for that series is a win for the song “Eat Shit, Bob,” which was also nominated this year in the Original Music category but lost to Euphoria.

Will win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

Should win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

Outstanding Competition Program

The Masked Singer (Fox)
Nailed It! (Netflix)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)

The smart thing to do here is bet on either RuPaul’s Drag Race, which has won for the past two years, or The Voice, which has four Emmys in this category. I’m going to go with Drag Race, which has already cleaned up in the Creative Arts categories, while adding that I would be very happy to see Nailed It! win, partly to mix things up and partly because there’s so much joy in its celebration of epic fails.

Will win: RuPaul’s Drag Race

Should win: Nailed It!

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC)
Don Cheadle, Black Monday (Showtime)
Ted Danson, The Good Place (NBC)
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Ramy Youssef, Ramy (Hulu)

In keeping with my assertion that we may be looking at a Schitt’s sweep in the comedy categories, I think Eugene Levy is probably going to win here, though I wouldn’t rule out Ramy Youssef for his introspective performance in Ramy. I’ll add, for the record, that it would be lovely to watch national treasure Ted Danson give a Zoom acceptance speech for his unceasingly delightful portrayal of Michael on The Good Place.

Will win: Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek

Should win: Ted Danson, The Good Place

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me (Netflix)
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me (Netflix)
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Issa Rae, Insecure (HBO)
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC)

Of all the nominated Schitt’s Creek actors, I feel most confident in a win for Catherine O’Hara, who invented a whole new way of speaking English with her portrayal of Moira Rose. It sure would be nice to see Issa Rae win, though, especially for a season in which her character went through some major transitions.

Will win: Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek

Should win: Catherine O’Hara or Issa Rae, Insecure

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark (Netflix)
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us (NBC)
Steve Carell, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Brian Cox, Succession (HBO)
Billy Porter, Pose (FX)
Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)

I keep waffling between Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong as the likely winner, and that makes me wonder if the Succession stars will cancel each other out, leaving an opening for Billy Porter to win again or perhaps Jason Bateman to take the trophy. I still can’t totally decide, so I’m going with MC L to the OG, who went from desperate seeker of Daddy’s affection to absolute iceman in this season of Succession.

Will win: Jeremy Strong, Succession

Should win: Jeremy Strong, Succession

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Olivia Colman, The Crown (Netflix)
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve (BBC America)
Laura Linney, Ozark (Netflix)
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve (BBC America)
Zendaya, Euphoria (HBO)

Six months ago, I would have said this Emmy was going to Olivia Colman for her natural ability to assume the role of Queen Elizabeth post–Claire Foy. It still may. It also could go to Jennifer Aniston for her confident return to scripted television in The Morning Show. But I’m convinced Laura Linney will win this because the episode she submitted, “Fire Pink,” contains some of the most wrenching acting I’ve ever seen her do, and that’s saying something considering we’re talking about Laura Linney.

Will win: Laura Linney, Ozark

Should win: Laura Linney, Ozark

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Jeremy Irons, Watchmen (HBO)
Hugh Jackman, Bad Education (HBO)
Paul Mescal, Normal People (Hulu)
Jeremy Pope, Hollywood (Netflix)
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True (HBO)

This strikes me as a two-man race between Mark Ruffalo and Hugh Jackman, and since Ruffalo is playing a difficult dual role, he’ll take the prize. I really admired Jackman’s work in Bad Education, though, in which he played an incredibly persuasive fraud.

Will win: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

Should win: Hugh Jackman, Bad Education

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America (Hulu)
Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable (Netflix)
Shira Haas, Unorthodox (Netflix)
Regina King, Watchmen (HBO)
Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)

In any other year, Cate Blanchett would be a shoo-in. She’s an Oscar winner making her television debut in a juicy role as a major, polarizing figure in the women’s-rights movement, Phyllis Schlafly. But Blanchett is up against Regina King, another Oscar (and Emmy) winner in the central superheroic role that gives Watchmen so much of its humanity. King can’t lose.

Will win: Regina King, Watchmen

Should win: Regina King, Watchmen

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Mahershala Ali, Ramy (Hulu)
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Hulu)
Sterling K. Brown, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
William Jackson Harper, The Good Place (NBC)
Daniel Levy, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

In keeping with my Schitt’s sweep theory, I’m going with Daniel Levy here, who also created the series and gave his character, David, so much perpetually aghast energy.

Will win: Daniel Levy, Schitt’s Creek

Should win: William Jackson Harper. I can’t help it; I just really want Chidi to receive more widespread validation.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
D’Arcy Cardin, The Good Place (NBC)
Betty Gilpin, GLOW (Netflix)
Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Here’s where I’m having a hard time making a call. Annie Murphy could very well win if the Schitt’s Creek love is (sorry) overflowing. But I also have to think the show can’t win in every single category. Alex Borstein has won for every season of Mrs. Maisel so far, and I suspect she will again; people in Hollywood love a shit-talking, loyal agent. I would be thrilled if Betty Gilpin won for GLOW, (a) because she’s terrific in it, and (b) because I am dying to watch her give an acceptance speech from wherever she’s virtually watching the Emmys.

Will win: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Should win: Betty Gilpin, GLOW

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

Nicholas Braun, Succession (HBO)
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO)
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC)
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession (HBO)
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld (HBO)

The thing about Billy Crudup on The Morning Show was that I never knew what was going to come out of his mouth or whether his character, Cory Ellison, could be trusted or should be avoided at all costs. He was oily and charming at the same time, and he stole every scene into which his character elegantly slid. I suspect voters will feel the same way, even though several of these performances are very worthy (love you, Cousin Greg!).

Will win: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Should win: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama

Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Netflix)
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies (HBO)
Julia Garner, Ozark (Netflix)
Thandie Newton, Westworld (HBO)
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve (BBC America)
Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO)
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies (HBO)
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Just as Olivia Colman did, Helena Bonham Carter took over a role on The Crown that had been more than ably played by another actor (Vanessa Kirby) and managed to make it her own. That’s an achievement, and I think voters will recognize that, even though Sarah Snook made such a slick and formidable Ivanka in this season of Succession.

Will win: Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown

Should win: Sarah Snook, Succession

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Watchmen (HBO)
Jovan Adepo, Watchmen (HBO)
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend (Netflix)
Louis Gossett Jr., Watchmen (HBO)
Dylan McDermott, Hollywood (Netflix)
Jim Parsons, Hollywood (Netflix)

A lot of Emmy pundits are predicting Jim Parsons will win, perhaps because his role in Hollywood was such a departure from Sheldon on The Big Bang Theory, a role for which Parsons won four Emmys. This is no dig at Parsons, but I have to think (hope?) voters will look at a field that is dominated by Black actors, a rare occurrence, all of whom gave excellent performances this year, and see the fault in that logic. I’m looking at Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, who had the difficult task of playing a dual role for much of Watchmen without letting on that he was playing a dual role. It’s also possible that all the Watchmen contenders will cancel one another out and Tituss Burgess will finally win for his work on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt after being nominated four times previously without a victory. If that happens, I can’t say I’d be mad at it.

Will win: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Watchmen

Should win: Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Uzo Aduba, Mrs. America (Hulu)
Toni Collette, Unbelievable (Netflix)
Margo Martindale, Mrs. America (Hulu)
Jean Smart, Watchmen (HBO)
Holland Taylor, Hollywood (Netflix)
Tracey Ullman, Mrs. America (Hulu)

I don’t know how voters will choose between the three Mrs. America nominees, which is why I think they may go another way entirely and choose either Toni Collette, who is phenomenal in Unbelievable, or Jean Smart, who is so utterly allergic to b.s. as Laurie Blake. Personally, even though I don’t think she has a chance of winning, I have a real affinity for Tracey Ullman’s work as Betty Friedan, which was hilarious and transformative but also gave real dimension to a woman who could easily have been played as a caricature.

Will win: Jean Smart, Watchmen

Should win: Tracey Ullman, Mrs. America

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

The Great, “The Great” (Pilot), Matt Shakman
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “Marvelous Radio,” Daniel Palladino
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” Amy Sherman-Palladino
Modern Family, “Finale Part II,” Gail Mancuso
Ramy, “Miakhalifa.mov,” Ramy Youssef
Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending,” Andrew Cividino and Daniel Levy
Will & Grace, “We Love Lucy,” James Burrows

The third season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel may have been uneven, but “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” the episode in which Midge and Lenny Bruce kinda, sorta almost hook up, is perfect and beautifully directed by Amy Sherman-Palladino.

Will win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” Amy Sherman-Palladino

Should win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” Amy Sherman-Palladino

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

The Crown, “Aberfan,” Benjamin Caron
The Crown, “Cri de Coeur,” Jessica Hobbs
Homeland, “Prisoners of War,” Leslie Linka Glatter
The Morning Show, “The Interview,” Mimi Leder
Ozark, “Fire Pink,” Alik Sakharov
Ozark, “Su Casa Es Mi Casa,” Ben Semanoff
Succession, “Hunting,” Andrij Parekh
Succession, “This Is Not for Tears,” Mark Mylod

“This Is Not for Tears” is amazing, but “Aberfan,” The Crown episode about the coal avalanche that killed hundreds of children in an English village, was incredibly ambitious in scope and heartbreaking to watch. Emmy voters will likely want to recognize The Crown, and this seems like a logical place to do it.

Will win: The Crown, “Aberfan,” Benjamin Caron

Should win: The Crown, “Aberfan,” Benjamin Caron

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Little Fires Everywhere, “Find a Way,” Lynn Shelton
Normal People, Episode 5, Lenny Abrahamson
Unorthodox, “Prisoners of War,” Maria Schrader
Watchmen, “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice,” Nicole Kassell
Watchmen, “Little Fear of Lightning,” Steph Green
Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Stephen Williams

It would be lovely to see Lynn Shelton posthumously win an Emmy, but I see no way that anything will top the year’s best episode of television, Watchmen’s “This Extraordinary Being.”

Will win: Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Stephen Williams

Should win: Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Stephen Williams

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

The Good Place, “Whenever You’re Ready,” Michael Schur
The Great, “The Great” (Pilot), Tony McNamara
Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending,” Daniel Levy
Schitt’s Creek, “The Presidential Suite,” David West Read
What We Do in the Shadows, “Collaboration,” Sam Johnson and Chris Marcil
What We Do in the Shadows, “Ghosts,” Paul Simms
What We Do in the Shadows, “On the Run,” Stefani Robinson

The odds seem pretty good for a Schitt’s Creek win on behalf of its wedding finale, but I am pulling for Mike Schur to win for wrapping up the philosophical The Good Place in such a satisfying, smartly written way. Did any other show this year use the phrase “Take it sleazy” in a way that made you cry? No, I didn’t think so.

Will win: Schitt’s Creek, “Happy Ending,” Daniel Levy

Should win: The Good Place, “Whenever You’re Ready,” Michael Schur

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Better Call Saul, “Bad Choice Road,” Thomas Schnauz
Better Call Saul, “Bagman,” Gordon Smith
The Crown, “Aberfan,” Peter Morgan
The Crown, “Cri de Coeur,” Jessica Hobbs
Ozark, “All In,” Chris Mundy
Ozark, “Boss Fight,” John Shiban
Ozark, “Fire Pink,” Miki Johnson
Succession, “This Is Not for Tears,” Jesse Armstrong

“Bad Choice Road” is an intense, exceptionally written episode of Better Call Saul. That’s true too of Ozark’s “Fire Pink.” But I have to think this one will go to the Succession season-two finale, whose twist packed a real wallop.

Will win: Succession, “This Is Not for Tears,” Jesse Armstrong

Should win: Succession, “This Is Not for Tears,” Jesse Armstrong; or Better Call Saul, “Bad Choice Road,” Thomas Schnauz

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Mrs. America, “Shirley,” Tanya Barfield
Normal People, Episode 3, Sally Rooney and Alice Birch
Unbelievable, Episode 1, Susannah Grant, Michael Chabon, and Ayelet Waldman
Unorthodox, “Part 1,” Anna Winger
Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Damon Lindelof and Cord Jefferson

All of these episodes represent truly excellent work — I really do wish all of these shows could win at least one Emmy — but again, “This Extraordinary Being” was so extraordinary I don’t see how voters can’t give it an Emmy for its writing.

Will win: Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Damon Lindelof and Cord Jefferson

Should win: Watchmen, “This Extraordinary Being,” Damon Lindelof and Cord Jefferson

What Will Win and What Should Win at the 2020 Emmys