Every week between now and January 24, when the Academy Award nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll share insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination. (And if you feel confident that you know who’s going to prevail throughout awards season and at the Oscars, sign up now for Vulture’s Movies Fantasy League.)
Best Picture
Bardo
After a savage reception at Venice, where critics pilloried Bardo as “overstuffed,” “insufferable,” and “cartoonishly indulgent,” Alejandro Iñárritu cut 22 minutes out of his blank-check Netflix film. But with the movie entering limited release, the edits haven’t dulled critical complaints that Bardo might as well be called Bored-o. “Why is it only the people with the most cushioned existences who get to have existential crises?” asks Anthony Lane. Industry voters might be kinder, since one thing you can say about Bardo’s mix of self-regard and self-loathing is that many in Hollywood could find it extremely relatable (provided they manage to sit through the whole thing). No Iñárritu movie has ever missed with the Oscars; the Academy even gave him a special trophy for his 2017 VR installation. Is this the film that breaks his streak?
Avatar: The Way of Water
I see you, Way of Water. This week brought the first full-length trailer for James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar sequel, and it looks, well, like an Avatar movie, crammed with eye-popping action and fantastical otherworldly landscapes. (Disney needs to add that whale creature to its Pandora theme park, pronto.) With Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also in the mix, there will be heavy competition on the blockbuster side of the ballot. But from what Cameron’s shown us, The Way of Water looks spectacular enough to crack a Best Picture category that still has a handful of open seats.
Current Predix
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, The Woman King, Women Talking
Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo
If Bardo is any indication, winning back-to-back Best Director Oscars filled Iñárritu with a spiritual malaise he was only able to work through by making a three-hour, semi-experimental film about it. Unfortunately, our own Bilge Ebiri says that while “Iñárritu has a flair for the cinematic … he is not an experimental filmmaker. He doesn’t have that kind of deft touch, that willingness to throw ideas at the wall, see what sticks, and — most importantly — move on.” Will the directors branch spare Iñárritu more agony by passing him over this time, or will their longstanding affection for the Mexican auteur outweigh those brutal reviews?
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
The Fabelmans laid low after winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, hoping to stave off the pushback that often greets an early frontrunner. But with the film’s promo campaign ramping up, here’s Spielberg on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter, which declares the autobiographical Fabelmans his “most vulnerable movie.” That solid-gold narrative has helped make Spielberg the presumptive Best Director favorite. We’ll see if that holds true once the film gets in front of audiences.
Current Predix
Todd Field, Tár; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Daniel Giménez Cacho, Bardo
At least Iñárritu isn’t the only one getting dinged in those Bardo pans. Cacho’s performance as the director’s stand-in caught strays from Owen Gleiberman for its “disarming and, at times, almost annoying mildness.” Earlier this season Cacho was bandied about as a potential Best Actor dark horse, but while this category is ripe for upsets, I think there are more potent contenders in the wings.
Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Radcliffe’s vocal support for the trans community earned him another round of I-can’t-believe-he-turned-out-normal goodwill the week his much-anticipated Weird Al biopic hits streaming. (How anticipated? Weird was the only screening I couldn’t get into at TIFF, and judging by the number of Weird Al costumes in the audience for the Brazilian movie I saw instead, I wasn’t alone.) Unfortunately, that won’t translate into Oscar buzz, as the Roku Original will eschew an Oscar-qualifying run to preserve its Emmys eligibility.
Current Predix
Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Hugh Jackman, The Son; Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
This small-scale character study marks Lawrence’s first lead role since Red Sparrow, and she’s pitched it as a return to choosing projects with intention after a string of careerist tentpoles. As a soldier recovering from a traumatic brain injury, she’s getting better reviews than the movie itself, an intimate two-hander that vibes along on Lawrence and co-star Brian Tyree Henry’s sizable screen presences. Though J.Law seems relieved her time as the internet’s imaginary best friend is behind her, I imagine she’s not finished being honored by the Academy just yet. Still, the self-consciously modest Causeway might not have enough force to make waves in this race.
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
It was a rough weekend for Best Actress vehicles at the specialty box office, as both Till and Tár posted “tepid” figures upon opening wide. The silver lining for Till was that it also earned an A+ CinemaScore and a 95 percent audience rating on RottenTomatoes, suggesting the civil-rights biopic — and Deadwyler’s assured performance at the heart of it — are resonating with the viewers who do find it.
Current Predix
Cate Blanchett, Tár; Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Danielle Deadwyler, Till; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
The reasons to see Causeway are Lawrence and Henry, two “superb” performers “trading quiet, insightful bits of acting,” says A.O. Scott. As one of the best character actors in the business, Henry will hopefully earn Oscar’s favor sooner or later, but this is an un-showy performance in an un-showy film. Since he’s away from the trail shooting the Godzilla vs. Kong sequel, he’ll have to hope honors like his recent Gotham nomination are loud enough to speak for him.
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Armageddon Time has come in for a tiny bit of criticism over the casting of Hopkins and Anne Hathaway in Jewish roles. Director James Gray has pushed back, defending the casting to the New York Times and The Times of Israel. This goyish controversy has been percolating the past few years, though given how many times Rachel Brosnahan been nominated for Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, I’m not sure whether it’s on awards voters’ radars.
Current Predix
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actress
Jean Smart, Babylon
As Damien Chazelle’s Hollywood bacchanalia prepares to make its big debut, its contenders are slowly coming into focus. Smart got to deliver a withering put-down to Brad Pitt in the Babylon trailer, and I’ve heard that her reportedly “very showy” role will be the film’s main supporting-actress play. Will the longtime TV actress be able to cap off her late-career renaissance with her first-ever Oscar nomination?
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
There’s not a lot of movement on the supporting-actress front, so let’s close with a piece of news that slipped through the cracks last week: Curtis getting announced as the plum honoree at February’s Santa Barbara film fest, where Oscar contenders traditionally go to make their closing arguments. She’s making it very clear that she wants that nom, and given her standing in the industry, the Academy may oblige.
Current Predix
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Claire Foy, Women Talking
