Every week* between now and January 24, when the Academy Awards nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll share insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
The awards circus takes a mid-season break over the holidays: Between last week’s Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, and the Globes telecast January 10, there’s not a whole lot going on. So rather than deliver our usual up-down judgements, let’s embrace the spirit of the season, and zoom out to take stock(ing) of the 12 awards hopefuls with the best chance of nabbing Oscar gold.
Could Take Home the Trophy
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
The multiverse hit is so non-Oscar-y that it’s hard to believe it might be the frontrunner. But consider this: Few other films in the race can match its blend of critical acclaim, box-office success, heartstrings appeal, and pure originality. Picture and Original Screenplay nominations feel like locks, and three acting noms is probably the floor.
Still, if you’re looking for a reason to doubt that a gonzo comedy about intergenerational trauma can go the distance, this week’s Oscar shortlists could be it. In the first sampling of actual Academy members, EEAAO missed the cut in Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling. This is not fatal — Nightmare Alley, a much weaker contender, did poorly at the shortlists last year and still wound up a Best Picture nominee — but it is a reminder that the film’s brilliant run through the tastemaker precursors may not be guaranteed to repeat once we get into the industry phase.
2. The Fabelmans
If Everything Everywhere indeed proves not to be the Academy’s cup of tea, might that benefit the film everyone agrees is right in Oscar’s sweet spot? Steven Spielberg’s cinematic memoir might as well have been constructed in a lab to appeal to the hearts and minds of Academy members: It’s an extremely personal project from a living legend working through complicated feelings about his family history and the art form he’s served for 50 years.
But its reputation as the early Best Picture frontrunner may be working against it. Though The Fabelmans is pricklier than it appears, it’s all too easy for those who haven’t seen the movie to write it off as schmaltz. It feels a bit like Power of the Dog did last year — a very strong contender on paper, but the fact that people seem reluctant to line up behind it suggests it hasn’t quite closed the deal. Also like Power of the Dog, a credible alternative to Spielberg in the Best Director race has not yet emerged.
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s Irish homecoming has kept up with EEAAO through the critical precursors, and initial results suggest it’ll be a strong acting play: The film looks likely to pull in four acting nominations, with Colin Farrell and Kerry Condon enjoying good odds at the win in their respective categories. Furthermore, Banshees feels like the type of quiet, well-liked pic that gets a boost from the preferential ballot. Good craic.
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Every season around this time, commentators start to make the case that the Academy can recapture the hearts of ordinary moviegoers by rewarding the highest grossing film of the year. Normally, those campaigns are doomed to failure, but Top Gun: Maverick has a rock-solid narrative its predecessors did not: “Reward the film that saved theaters!” (That the film’s fanbase skews significantly older than Spider-Man: No Way Home’s also helps.) If Joseph Kosinski starts to crack the Best Director lineups, we’ll know Maverick is a bonafide threat.
Probably Getting Nominated
5. Tár
Cate Blanchett will slug it out with Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress, but what about the big category? For a certain section of the Internet — which just so happens to overlap heavily with the readership of this very website — Todd Field’s highbrow cultural drama is the movie of the year. Many critics groups agree, but if there were ever a film destined not to appeal to the types of people who fill out THR’s anonymous Oscar ballots, it’s this one.
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
Doing very well at the box-office (even if the initial reports were slightly off expectations) and has shown up everywhere it needs to, including the Oscar shortlists. Does it cannibalize Top Gun, or does Top Gun cannibalize it?
7. Elvis
One of many beneficiaries of the slightly underwhelming end-of-year crop, Elvis’s $150 million domestic haul looks even better in comparison to its rivals’ meager earnings. Austin Butler looks like a lock for a Best Actor spot, and Baz Luhrmann could even make up for his Moulin Rouge director snub, too.
8. Women Talking
This is the kind of movie that people who hate the Oscars imagine every Oscar movie is: a dour, desaturated drama about a group of Mennonite women deciding the proper response to institutionalized sexual assault. But why should we give those people all the power? The film finally opens this week, and while it’s lost some luster after a few high-profile snubs, critical love for Sarah Polley’s intimate, empathetic contender should ensure it stays in the hunt.
On the Bubble
9. Babylon
I confess to being a little stumped by Babylon, a movie that many of its loudest supporters seem to concede is at least half-terrible. But it’s tracking well, and its hometown advantage and impeccable crafts have kept it in the race. Making the Score shortlist was expected; getting into Sound and Makeup & Hairstyling as well is a sign there’s real booze in this cup.
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
If the original Knives Out couldn’t get into Best Picture, what are the chances that its sequel could? There’s one more spot available this year, and a paucity of surefire contenders compared to when Knives Out ran in 2019. Plus, it helps that Glass Onion has become Netflix’s top priority almost by default.
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
Speaking of Netflix, the streamer may have another contender on its hands with Germany’s official Oscar entry, which made a surprisingly strong appearance on the shortlists, cracking Score, Sound, Visual Effects, and Makeup & Hairstyling to go along with the expected bid in International Film. Its effluvial depiction of WWI trench warfare won’t be for everyone, but all those blood and guts are clearly getting a reaction out of the Academy’s crafts contingent. Could Edward Berger be this year’s token foreign-language director?
12. RRR
This year’s lovable underdog took a few knocks at the shortlists, where the only field it cracked was Original Song for “Naatu Naatu.” (Thank God it got in there.) I still think there’s enough passion to make this a possibility, but we’ll possibly have to take it on faith. The free showings in New York City over the holidays are a fun stunt.
Also in the Mix
In alphabetical order: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (has a legit acting contender in Angela Bassett, also did well on the shortlists); Nope (hanging in there); Triangle of Sadness (should do well with international voters), The Whale (good per-screen average suggests the Brendan Fraser comeback tour has had an effect), The Woman King (Viola Davis is looking good, but the film itself only made the Score shortlist).
*After this week, Oscar Futures is taking a holiday break. We will return in January.
