golden globes 2023

Who’s Going to Win at the Comeback Golden Globes?

Photo-Illustration: Vulture

Every year, we give the same caveat about the Golden Globes: They’re voted on by about 100 foreign journalists with their own singular tastes, a body that has no overlap with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. And yet, we argue, they matter because they’re a nationally televised advertisement for the awards season to come, a dress rehearsal and a campaign stop wrapped into one.

But much has changed since crowds last packed into the Beverly Hilton on a January night three years ago. A rolling snowball of scandals around the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — some having to do with the lack of diversity inside its membership, others with the group encouraging an approach to awards campaigning that edged suspiciously close to bribery — led to a soft cancellation of last year’s ceremony. (Winners were announced on Twitter, and the industry more or less pretended the Golden Globes did not exist.) The HFPA promised to clean up its act, reforming its bylaws, diversifying its membership, and adding a bunch of new voters. That earned the Globes a one-year tryout with NBC, which is why the awards are on a Tuesday night. We’ll give you a second chance, the broadcaster said, but we’re sure as hell not gonna let you preempt the NFL.

All of this is why this year’s Golden Globes feel harder to predict than ever — not just who’s going to win but who’s going to show up. (Additionally, owing to a quirk in the calendar, industry groups like SAG have yet to weigh in with their nominations, making the Globes even more of an island.) Of course, that only makes them all the more fun to try to predict. Where will the new and improved HFPA try to demonstrate that the Globes deserve to be back another year, and where will voters follow their own bizarre muse? Read on for our guesses.

Movies

Best Motion Picture — Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

This Oscar season is blessed with an abundance of big crowd-pleasing hits. Do any of them have a chance of actually winning something, or are they just there to fill seats? That’s the question of the season, and this category, which pits three blockbusters against two arty auteur efforts, may help clear it up. You could make a legitimate case for or against any of the nominees: The Fabelmans has fallen from its perch atop the Oscar rankings, but it’s still one of only three films to earn Picture, Director, and Screenplay nods from the HFPA; Top Gun: Maverick, a popular pundits’ pick, couldn’t get into Actor or Director. (Though Tom Cruise’s decision to return his Globes amid the backlash could have been a factor, as far as I know the HFPA has no fraught history with Joseph Kosinski.) When the Drama field lacks a sure Best Picture heavyweight, the Globes like to make a splash with a slightly unexpected pick. Of this quintet, which movie is splashier, and Globes-ier, than Elvis?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

If you’re searching for displays of integrity, the awards race probably would not be the first place you look, which is why Brendan Fraser’s decision to skip Tuesday’s ceremony carried such weight. Fraser has accused former HFPA president Philip Berk of groping him at an event in 2003, and rather than put that history aside to stump for his comeback vehicle, he’s boycotting the event in protest. (Berk has disputed Fraser’s account of the incident.) I’ve heard speculation that this rules him out for a potential win since the HFPA might not award someone it knows isn’t going to be there. Plus Austin Butler, a handsome young actor in a musical biopic, looks like an awfully appealing alternative. But consider this: If the HFPA is serious about proving that it has changed, how can it not go with Fraser?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Appropriately enough for a pair of pugilistic protagonists, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh have been slugging it out for Best Actress honors throughout the season. Whistle in hand, the Globes have separated them for a moment, allowing each woman to take home a trophy and make their case in front of the nation. Here’s hoping Blanchett goes viral in a different manner than Lydia Tár did.

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness

For once, a Musical/Comedy category carries as much tension as the Drama race. Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once look to be running neck and neck: Each managed the Picture-Director-Screenplay trinity and pulled in multiple acting nominations on top. It’s incredibly tight, but I’ll go with Banshees by a hair, for the mere fact that it scored noms for every cast member it could have hoped for, while Everything Everywhere saw Stephanie Hsu left out.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Whether Fraser remains the Oscar front-runner depends on how much you buy the Colin Farrell bump: Is he gonna walk away with the whole bag, or is he just a critics’-group thing? Besides making a matching set with his In Bruges trophy, a win here could be Farrell’s chance to make it real, especially if it’s accompanied by some cracking banter.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Cheers to the HFPA for picking a strikingly unembarrassing set of nominees in what can be a real wild card of a category. (God love that Mrs. ’Arris.) As with Blanchett in Drama, I don’t see Michelle Yeoh losing here.

Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Ke Huy Quan becoming the Supporting Actor front-runner might have seemed a fanboy’s dream back in March, but he just notched the triple crown of prizes from the New York, Los Angeles, and national critics. There’s real love out there for his performance, and his journey from child star to behind-the-scenes jobber to indie heartthrob is the type of narrative that voters can get behind. The Globes try to sew up at least one acting category for Oscar, so Quan should be the beneficiary this year.

Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said

The sickos who followed along with last year’s Twitter-only version of the Golden Globes will recall that, between the typos and strange attempts at wordplay, one A-lister defied the industry’s code of silence by recording a video celebrating the HFPA’s charity work. That person was Jamie Lee Curtis. Curtis has been a diligent and savvy campaigner, and a trophy here would be the perfect way for the Globes to thank her for sticking by them in their hour of need.

Best Director — Motion Picture

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

In for a penny, in for a pound. If you’re predicting Elvis in Drama, you’ve got to go Baz Luhrmann in Director; for good or for ill, the biopic bears the rhinestone-adorned fingerprints of its creator. Spielberg is another tempting pick, but the Globes sometimes enjoy shoveling the first batch of dirt on an ailing contender, and since The Fabelmans has been treated somewhat unfairly this awards season, I could see that happening here.

Best Screenplay

Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

As with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri five years ago, Screenplay feels like the natural place to award former playwright Martin McDonagh. But if there’s going to be an Everything Everywhere sweep, you’ll see it here first.

Best Original Song

“Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa,” Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu,” RRR

Why would you reward a boring mid-tempo end-credits song when “Naatu Naatu,” the best musical number of the year, is right there? Come on, HFPA — give us a little razzle-dazzle!

Best Score for a Motion Picture

Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Carter Burwell is the only Score nominee who hasn’t won before, but his Banshees music feels a touch too muted to end his drought. In the absence of many precursors to guide us, it’s prudent to go with the most music-forward of the other four nominated films: Babylon, which would be the third Globes win in a row for Justin Hurwitz.

Best Motion Picture — Animated

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-oh
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

Turning Red and Marcel the Shell would both be more than worthy winners, but recall that Pinocchio also snuck into the Song and Score races. There’s not much suspense here.

Best Non-English-Language Film

All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
RRR

No contender has had a better last month than All Quiet on the Western Front, which surpassed expectations at the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists and now appears to be knocking on the door of a Best Picture nomination. The Globes could get that train rolling … or they could cement their tastemaker bona fides by rewarding the one film the Academy can’t: RRR, which India didn’t choose as its official submission. How’s that for reintroducing yourself?

Television

Best Television Series — Drama

Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
Ozark
Severance

In recent years, Golden Globes voters have been somewhat traditional in their choices in this category. The Crown has already won twice. So did Succession, which was not eligible this year. Now that there’s a much larger voting body, it’s harder than usual to predict what’s going to happen, but I have to think that, in general, members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will be extra-motivated to prove they’ve got their fingers on the pulse. That’s why I suspect the winner here will be one of the two first-season entries: House of the Dragon or Severance. Between the two, Severance — a sophisticated, completely fresh narrative from newbie series creator Dan Erickson — seems the most likely.

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Wednesday

The HFPA likes to go off script in this category, sometimes rewarding surprising shows like The Kominsky Method or Mozart in the Jungle. That’s why I think the two established comedies — Only Murders and Hacks, which won this award last year — have the least chance of winning. I can imagine voters jumping on the recent buzz generated by Wednesday, but I suspect they’ll be more drawn to the high energy of The Bear or the refreshingly funny portrait of public school offered by Abbott Elementary. Both shows are great, but the opportunity to award a show from an Black creator with a largely Black cast may have extra appeal for an HFPA desperate to prove that it has reformed, so I predict Abbott Elementary.

Best Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Black Bird
Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
The Dropout
Pam & Tommy
The White Lotus

There is absolutely a world where Dahmer, co-created by Ryan Murphy (winner of this year’s Carol Burnett Award and a fave of the HFPA), takes home the prize in this category. But I think it’s more likely that Globe deciders will latch on to The White Lotus, which they completely overlooked in its first season and which more recently took center stage in TV discourse.

Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
Diego Luna, Andor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance

With respect to all of these worthy nominees, only Jeff Bridges has been nominated for six Globes over the course of his career, received the Cecil B. DeMille Award from the HFPA back in 2019, and gave a strong performance in a TV drama while battling cancer. Seems like this is Bridges’s to lose.

Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
Laura Linney, Ozark
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
Zendaya, Euphoria

While the HFPA loves The Crown and some voters may be inclined to reward Emma D’Arcy’s fierce turn in House of the Dragon, the fact is that Zendaya has already won two Emmys for her work on Euphoria but has zero Globes. (This year marks her first nomination.) The HFPA looks like it’s a few steps behind, and I’m guessing its voting body will lean toward rectifying that — especially given the caliber of Zendaya’s performance in Euphoria’s second season.

Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Jeremy Allen White gave a breakout performance in The Bear and single-handedly turned “Yes, chef” into the sexiest TV catchphrase of 2022. I’m inclined to believe that he will win here, especially if voters give the Best Comedy award to Abbott Elementary over The Bear.

Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks

I can imagine this award going to one of three people: Brunson, Gomez, or Netflix “It”girl and dance sensation Ortega. The problem is that I can see each of these scenarios so clearly that I am not sure which will actually happen. So I’m going with my gut and pronouncing that HFPA voters will give it to Selena Gomez for holding her own opposite Steve Martin and Martin Short and demonstrating so much resilience in the industry.

Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Taron Egerton, Black Bird
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Colin Firth, The Staircase
Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

Wow, this category is really fixated on guys in scripted crime shows! While I have no mathematical data to support this, I believe the one who will emerge victorious is Evan Peters. Whatever you may have thought about the ethics behind Dahmer, Peters did give a committed performance.

Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Julia Roberts, Gaslit

This is Chastain’s eighth Golden Globe nomination, which means she’s a favorite of the HFPA. So is Julia Roberts, who has nine nominations to her credit (this is her first on the television side). Conventional wisdom suggests that Amanda Seyfried, who won the Emmy for her role as Elizabeth Holmes, has this in the bag, but I could see it going another way: Jessica Chastain will come out on top.

Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

John Lithgow, The Old Man
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
John Turturro, Severance
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry

There are a few national treasures in this category — including Lithgow and Winkler — but I think John Turturro’s going to win this round.

Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Julia Garner, Ozark
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

I was inclined to think that Garner, James, or Ralph might win, but it’s hard to overlook Elizabeth Debicki and the HFPA’s love of The Crown.

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient
Richard Jenkins, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy

The Patient only got this one nomination, so I’m making the wild assumption that this means the HFPA really (and rightly) admired Domhnall Gleeson’s performance.

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Claire Danes, Fleishman Is in Trouble
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Under the Banner of Heaven
Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus

Claire Danes delivers an all-time great performance in Fleishman Is in Trouble, and that’s saying a lot, since we’re talking about Danes here. If voters watched her standout episode of Fleishman, this could go her way, but I’m inclined to think that they’ll skew toward Jennifer Coolidge, who lost to Sarah Snook last year, when the supporting categories still combined limited series with drama and comedy.

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Who’s Going to Win at the Comeback Golden Globes?